Hafrok

Bohai B1

Status
Under Constructionlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
SHShandong Energy Group — 100% ◇
Location
China
Bohai Sea
Verification
6 sources · ◆ 4 documents held
≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 500 MW ◇
Turbines —
Foundation Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴ Water depth 10–16 m ≈ Wind speed 8.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Taken · date not recorded ∴
COD · Hafrok 2028 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈97% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. Its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2027: 12.6% (conditional on completion) 2028: 46.8% (conditional on completion) 2029: 28.2% (conditional on completion) 2030: 9.3% (conditional on completion) 2031: 2.5% (conditional on completion) 2032: 0.7% (conditional on completion)2026now2027202847%EXPECTED2029203020312032
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
202712.6%
2028 (expected)46.8%
202928.2%
20309.3%
20312.5%
20320.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2027 Q3; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026 Q4, the slower quarter not until 2028 Q3.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2028, likely range 2027–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical build time from the construction start is used.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈97%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2027’28Commercial operation 2028 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026).

Revenue & offtake the regime the project was built under

Offtake regime not on record
A built project sells its power under the contract or support regime it was financed with; it is not expected to bid into new government offtake rounds. Where the record does not yet name that regime, the row says so rather than guessing.

Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers

Installation under way
Installation · on record
StageUnder Construction
Offshore constructionstarted
Turbinesnot reportedshown when the developer reports a dated count
Expected start of operationnot stated

Related projects nearest first · owner and round: same country, most advanced first

Nearby

The China market →

Also Shandong Energy Group

All 5 Shandong Energy Group projects →

Sources & verification

Rests on 6 sources · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator1
[6]
千里马招标网 (tender aggregator republishing Shandong Energy's procurement notice)2025-08-04◆ 山东能源渤中海上风电B1场址项目海洋环境影响评价专题技术服务公开询价公告
Copyrighted source — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsSite rightsTotal capacity
source ↗
Trade press5
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Shandong Bohai B1 offshore wind farm - G…
supportsownerConsentFinal investment decisionSite rightsTotal capacity+2 more
source ↗
[2]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
source ↗
[3]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
source ↗
[4]
Global Energy Monitor◆ Global Wind Power Tracker Methodology
“Offshore hard mount: have wind turbines that are usually designed for installation in water no deeper than 60 meters [...] These turbines are mounted directly onto the sea floor. Offshore floating: ar…”
supportsFoundation
source ↗
[5]
千里马招标网 (republishing China Electric Power Equipment Group Central-South Survey & Design Institute's procurement notice)2024-10-22◆ 山东能源渤中海上风电基地B1项目风机基础制作及施工、风机塔筒吊装公开竞争性谈判公…
Copyrighted source — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsSite rights
source ↗