Hafrok

Guangdong Xuwen Dongsan

Guangdong Xuwen Dongsan. GEM records phase 1 500 MW construction.

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
ZMZhanjiang Mingyang BASF New Energy ◆
Location
China
South China Sea
Verification
5 sources · ◆ 5 documents held
◆verified◇sourced∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 500 MW ◇
Turbines —
Foundation Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Taken · date not recorded ∴
COD · Hafrok 2028 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈91% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Financed projects (investment decision taken) complete ≈92% of the time on Hafrok's record. Its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2027: 14.2% (conditional on completion) 2028: 30.5% (conditional on completion) 2029: 24.0% (conditional on completion) 2030: 14.4% (conditional on completion) 2031: 8.0% (conditional on completion) 2032: 4.4% (conditional on completion) 2033: 2.4% (conditional on completion) 2034: 1.3% (conditional on completion) 2035: 0.8% (conditional on completion)2026now2027202830%EXPECTED2029203020312032203320342035
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
202714.2%
2028 (expected)30.5%
202924.0%
203014.4%
20318.0%
20324.4%
20332.4%
20341.3%
20350.8%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2024. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2028 Q2; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2029 Q3.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2028, likely range 2027–2030 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development (FID) projects that went on to complete — ≈92%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Financed projects have essentially always gone on to operate, but few have resolved since taking their investment decision — the estimate holds just below the construction-stage level rather than claiming certainty from a thin record. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈91%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2024’25’26’27’28View the source for Consent grantedConsent granted 24 May 2024 ◆Commercial operation 2028 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026).

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Guangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配) ◇
expected — · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
~6,500 MW deep-sea allocation launched ~2024-07 (Beihai south sea-area: N sites 5,700 MW + P site 800 MW, ~94-120 km offshore). No settled result yet.

Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated

Related projects nearest first · owner and round: same country, most advanced first

Nearby

The China market →

Sources & verification

Rests on 5 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 5 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[3]
徐闻县自然资源局 (Xuwen County Natural Resources Bureau)2025-11-13◆ 关于明阳巴斯夫湛江徐闻东三海上风电示范项目海域使用审批前公示
“徐闻县自然资源局关于明阳巴斯夫湛江徐闻东三海上风电示范项目海域使用审批前公示。 为广泛听取社会对项目用海的意见和建议，现对用海单位提出的海域使用申请进行审批前公示。 用海单位：湛江明阳巴斯夫新能源有限公司。项目名称：明阳巴斯夫湛江徐闻东三海上风电示范项目。 用海位置：湛江市徐闻县锦和镇以东海域。用海年限：27年。用海面积：578.2588公顷。2025年11月13日 [EN] Xuwen Coun…”
supportsoperator
source ↗
[4]
湛江市发展和改革局 (Zhanjiang Municipal Development and Reform Bureau), on the Zhanjiang Municipal People's Government portal2024-06-03◆ 项目动态｜国内首个中德合作海上风电项目获得核准
“5月24日，明阳巴斯夫湛江徐闻东三海上风电示范项目取得项目核准批复。该项目是国内首个获得核准的中德合作海上风电项目，也成为湛江徐闻东海域新增规划的三个海上风电场址中首个核准的项目。”
supportsConsentConsent granted
source ↗
Auction pipeline1
[5]
gdshe.org (relaying 北极星风力发电网)2024-07◆ cn-gx2024-launch
广西北海海上风电竞争性配置…N场址…规划容量570万千瓦，P场址规划容量80万千瓦 (~6,500 MW deep-sea), ~94-120 km offshore, 15-45 m depth.
supportsGuangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配)
source ↗
Trade press2
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Guangdong Xuwen Dongsan Offshore wind fa…
supportsFinal investment decisionSite rightsTotal capacityFoundationCoordinates
source ↗
[2]
Global Energy Monitor◆ Global Wind Power Tracker Methodology
“Offshore hard mount: have wind turbines that are usually designed for installation in water no deeper than 60 meters [...] Offshore floating: are an emerging technology designed for installation in de…”
supportsFoundation
source ↗