Hafrok

Guangdong Yuedong 001

Guangdong Yuedong 001. GEM records phase 1 1,700 MW construction.

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
SIState Power Investment Group Guangdong Power ◇
Location
China
South China Sea
Verification
2 sources · ◆ 2 documents held
◇sourced∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 1,700 MW ◇
Turbines —
Foundation —
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Taken · date not recorded ∴
COD · Hafrok 2029 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2029
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈90% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Financed projects (investment decision taken) complete ≈92% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a very large build, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2028: 6.3% (conditional on completion) 2029: 72.3% (conditional on completion) 2030: 20.3% (conditional on completion) 2031: 1.0% (conditional on completion)2026now20272028202972%EXPECTED20302031
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
20286.3%
2029 (expected)72.3%
203020.3%
20311.0%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Final investment decision in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2029 Q2; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2028 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2030 Q2.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2029, likely range 2029–2030 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from final investment decision is used.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development (FID) projects that went on to complete — ≈92%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Financed projects have essentially always gone on to operate, but few have resolved since taking their investment decision — the estimate holds just below the construction-stage level rather than claiming certainty from a thin record. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈90%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2027’28’29Commercial operation 2029 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026).

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Guangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配) ◇
expected — · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
~6,500 MW deep-sea allocation launched ~2024-07 (Beihai south sea-area: N sites 5,700 MW + P site 800 MW, ~94-120 km offshore). No settled result yet.

Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated

Related projects nearest first · owner and round: same country, most advanced first

Nearby

The China market →

Sources & verification

Rests on 2 sources · ◆ 2 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Auction pipeline1
[3]
gdshe.org (relaying 北极星风力发电网)2024-07◆ cn-gx2024-launch
广西北海海上风电竞争性配置…N场址…规划容量570万千瓦，P场址规划容量80万千瓦 (~6,500 MW deep-sea), ~94-120 km offshore, 15-45 m depth.
supportsGuangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配)
source ↗
Trade press1
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Guangdong Yuedong 001 Offshore wind farm
supportsoperatorConsentFinal investment decisionSite rightsTotal capacity+1 more
source ↗