Hafrok

Zhejiang Rui'An 1

Zhejiang Rui'An 1. GEM records phase 1 300 MW construction.

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
RHRuian Hua’ou Offshore Wind Power ◇
Location
China
East China Sea
Verification
4 sources · ◆ 4 documents held
◆verified◇sourced·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 308 MW ◆ Turbines 22 × 14 MW ◆ Foundation Jacket ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held Seabed lease · Rui'an Natural Resources and Planning Bureau · 2023-11 ◆
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · Hafrok 2026 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2026
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈78% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; technical complexity pulls the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2025: 14.2% (conditional on completion) 2026: 30.5% (conditional on completion) 2027: 24.0% (conditional on completion) 2028: 14.4% (conditional on completion) 2029: 8.0% (conditional on completion) 2030: 4.4% (conditional on completion) 2031: 2.4% (conditional on completion) 2032: 1.3% (conditional on completion) 2033: 0.8% (conditional on completion)20252026now30%EXPECTED2027202820292030203120322033
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
202514.2%
2026 (expected)30.5%
202724.0%
202814.4%
20298.0%
20304.4%
20312.4%
20321.3%
20330.8%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2022. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2026 Q2; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2024 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2027 Q3.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2026, likely range 2025–2028 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈78%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2023’24’25’26View the source for Consent grantedConsent granted 2022 ◆Commercial operation 2026 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026).

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Guangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配) ◇
expected — · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
~6,500 MW deep-sea allocation launched ~2024-07 (Beihai south sea-area: N sites 5,700 MW + P site 800 MW, ~94-120 km offshore). No settled result yet.

Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated

Related projects nearest first · owner and round: same country, most advanced first

Nearby

The China market →

Sources & verification

Rests on 4 sources (2 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[3]
Zhejiang Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, for Rui'an Huaou Offshore Wind Power Co., Ltd. (public-notice draft on the Zhejiang government file host)2024-11◆ Rui'an 1 offshore wind project sea-use c…
“工程总装机容量 308MW，拟安装 22 台风力发电机组，风力发电机组单机容量为 14MW。 … 风机单机容量 由 12.5MW 变更为 14MW，台数由 24 台变更为 22 台 … 选用四桩 导管架基础作为风电机组基础方案 … 瑞安 1 号海上风电用海目前已由瑞安市自然资源和规划局采用挂牌方式出 让，由瑞安华瓯海上风电有限公司摘牌，并于 2023 年 11 月取得海域使用权证 书 … 用海期限…”
supportsSite rightsTurbinesUnit capacityTotal capacityFoundation
source ↗
[4]
瑞安市发展和改革局 (Rui'an City Development and Reform Bureau), on the Zhejiang government file host2023-10-31◆ 关于瑞安1号海上风电220千伏送出工程核准的批复 (瑞发改投〔2023〕253号…
“该项目已取得《瑞安市发展和改革局关于瑞安 1 号海上风电项目核准的批复》（瑞发改投〔2022〕591 号）。”
supportsConsentConsent granted
source ↗
Auction pipeline1
[5]
gdshe.org (relaying 北极星风力发电网)2024-07◆ cn-gx2024-launch
广西北海海上风电竞争性配置…N场址…规划容量570万千瓦，P场址规划容量80万千瓦 (~6,500 MW deep-sea), ~94-120 km offshore, 15-45 m depth.
supportsGuangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配)
source ↗
Trade press1
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Zhejiang Rui'An 1 Offshore wind farm
supportsoperatorTotal capacityCoordinates
source ↗