Gulupdo Phase 1 Offshore Wind Farm
A 250 MW fixed-bottom project in the waters off Gulup Island, Ongjin-gun, Incheon - the first phase of a larger Gulupdo development.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Location
South KoreaYellow Sea
Technology
Capacity
250 MW ◆
Turbines
— ◇
Foundation
Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed 2023-12 ◇
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Certificate ◆
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈79%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 14.2% |
| 2030 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2031 | 24.0% |
| 2032 | 14.4% |
| 2033 | 8.0% |
| 2034 | 4.4% |
| 2035 | 2.4% |
| 2036 | 1.3% |
| 2037 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2030 Q1; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2031 Q1.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2030–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈79%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026).
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
250 MW contracted — utility PPA
● Utility PPA · South Korea 2026 H1 Offshore Wind Auction (fixed-bottom general + public-led + floating)
Priceprice undisclosed ·Capacity250 MWAwardedJun 2026Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
Rests on 8 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator2
[1]
기후에너지환경부 (MCEE)2026-06-30◆ '26년 상반기 해상풍력 입찰 결과 5개 사업 1,786MW 선정
“「2026년 상반기 해상풍력 고정가격계약 경쟁입찰 결과, 총 3,656MW, 9개 사업이 응찰해 5개 사업, 1,786MW가 최종 선정되었다.」 (9 projects / 3,656 MW bid; 5 projects / 1,786 MW selected.) NB the release states TOTALS only - it names no project an…”
supportsMechanismDetail
[5]
금융감독원 전자공시시스템 (DART) / SK이터닉스2026-08-13
“II-7 기타 참고사항: 「인천 굴업도 1단계(250MW), 2단계(500MW) 해상풍력 발전사업 등 총 1,140MW를 개발 중에 있습니다.」 XII-3 타법인출자 현황, 기준일 2026.06.30, row 굴업풍력개발㈜: 최초취득일자 2024.06.28, 기말 수량 120,000주, 지분율 30. (Gulup Wind Development Co., Lt…”
supportssponsorTotal capacity
Auction results1
[9]
기후에너지환경부 (MCEE), via 대한민국 정책브리핑 (korea.kr)2026-06-30◆ kr-2026h1-mcee-result
"2026년 상반기 해상풍력 고정가격계약 경쟁입찰 결과, 총 3,656MW, 9개 사업이 응찰해 5개 사업, 1,786MW가 최종 선정되었다. 기후에너지환경부(장관 김성환)는 6월 30일 한국에너지공단이 2026년 상반기 해상풍력 고정가격계약 경쟁입찰 결과를 확정하고, 입찰 사업자에게 개별 통보했다고 밝혔다. … 고정식 해상풍력은 총 1,254MW가 선정되…
supportsUtility PPA · South Korea 2026 H1 Offshore Wind Auction (fixed-bottom general + public-led + floating)
Trade press5
[3]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-07-02◆ Cip secures 1 gw across two projects in …
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityFoundation
[4]
아시아경제 (Asia Economy)2026-06-30
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsdevelopersponsorUnit capacity
[6]
인천투데이 (Incheon Today)2024-01-12
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent applied
[7]
인천투데이 (Incheon Today)2024-09-11
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsBackground
[8]
일렉트릭파워 (Electric Power Journal)2026-05
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsBackground