Wando Geumil Offshore Wind Farm
Located in the Yellow Sea off Wando, South Jeolla. KOEN subsidiary developer.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
KOEN — 100% ◇Location
South KoreaYellow Sea
Technology
Capacity
600 MW ◇
Turbines
40 × 15 MW ◇
Model
Vestas V236 15-0 ◇
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed 2018-11 ◇
Water depth
16–33 m ≈
Wind speed
7.9 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Certificate ◇
Grid
Applied ◇
Connection
Jeonnam onshore substation ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
Dec 2029 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2029-12; Hafrok expects 2030 — 1 year later.
Chance of delivery
≈77%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 14.2% |
| 2030 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2031 | 24.0% |
| 2032 | 14.4% |
| 2033 | 8.0% |
| 2034 | 4.4% |
| 2035 | 2.4% |
| 2036 | 1.3% |
| 2037 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2030 Q1; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2031 Q1.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2030–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2029) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈77%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
600 MW contracted — utility PPA
● Utility PPA · South Korea 2023 Wind Fixed-Price Auction — offshore carve-out
Priceprice undisclosed ·Capacity600 MWAwardedDec 2023Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2029-12
Sources & verification
Rests on 10 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 2 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Auction results1
[12]
Shin and Kim2026-06-22◆ kr-rps-wind-2023-kr-rps-terms
Korea RPS fixed-price offshore: completion-period bands 60/72/78 months; REC-price cut / cancellation on miss
supportsUtility PPA · South Korea 2023 Wind Fixed-Price Auction — offshore carve-out
Trade press8
[2]
Electric Power Journal (EPJ)2023-12-20◆ 2023 wind fixed-price auction - offshore…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityMechanismDetail
[4]
Industry News Korea2023
“발전사업허가 취득(2018년 11월), 송전이용 계약(2019년 12월), 환경영향평가 협의 완료(2023년 9월). 착공이 가시화되고 있다.”
supportsConsentSite rightsStatusConnection pointConsent applied
[6]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-04
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperator
[7]
[8]
Power Technology2024
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityTotal capacity
[9]
[10]
[11]
Asia Today (아시아투데이)2026-08-18
“당초 10월 착공을 목표로 했던 완도금일 해상풍력 사업이 오는 11월 주요 계약과 출자를 거쳐 내년 본공사에 들어갈 전망이다 ... 사업비가 4조5000억원까지 늘어난 ... 2029년 12월 600MW 준공 추진 ... 11월 현대건설 컨소시엄과 설계·조달·시공(EPC) 본계약 ... 연말에서 내년 초로 예정된 금융종결”
supportsCommercial operation
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityTotal capacityWater depth+1 more