ELWIND Latvia
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
LILIAA — 100% ◇
Location
LatviaBaltic Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,000 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
State-designated State designation · Latvian Ministry of Economy / Estonian Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications · 2022-10 ◆
Water depth
20–60 m ◇
Distance from shore
15 km ◇
Wind speed
9.7 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈50%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a market with no delivery record yet, its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.2% |
| 2034 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2035 | 24.0% |
| 2036 | 14.4% |
| 2037 | 8.0% |
| 2038 | 4.4% |
| 2039 | 2.4% |
| 2040 | 1.3% |
| 2041 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in new offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2034 is not credible.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2041 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈50%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026).
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
Rests on 5 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 1 document held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[5]
LIAA (Latvian Investment and Development Agency)2022-10-28◆ Estonia and Latvia reveal locations of j…
“al locations for joint offshore wind project Close Published more than 3 years ago Published: 28.10.2022. Facebook X / Twitter Linkedin Threads The governments of Estonia and Latvia have selected…”
supportsSite rights
Trade press4
[1]
offshoreWIND.biz2026
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsownerTotal capacity
[2]
[3]
[4]