Icebreaker Wind

The project is recorded as On Hold, so no sequence of milestones can be trusted. Hafrok publishes no expected year; the chart instead spreads the remaining chance of completion over the years a restarted project might finish in.

Hafrok believes a held project in the United States is unlikely to resume before a route to build exists again, and does not expect one before January 2029. On that reading the years the chart spreads the remaining chance over begin after 2029, not after today. This is Hafrok's judgment, not a fact on the record — what it rests on: United States market page.

Start from the share of On Hold projects that went on to complete — ≈15%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Historically only a minority of projects put on hold returned to delivery — the estimate reflects that. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — and halve the result while Hafrok reads the United States route as closed (a route that has to be won again is less likely to be won) — to ≈7%, which rates it Fragile on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).