Hafrok

Bandaobei N2

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
SEShanghai Electric — 100% ◇
Location
China
Yellow Sea
Verification
5 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 900 MW ◇
Turbines —
Foundation Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴ Water depth 9–18 m ≈ Wind speed 7.2 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · Hafrok 2030 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2030
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈77% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; its size and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2029: 14.2% (conditional on completion) 2030: 30.5% (conditional on completion) 2031: 24.0% (conditional on completion) 2032: 14.4% (conditional on completion) 2033: 8.0% (conditional on completion) 2034: 4.4% (conditional on completion) 2035: 2.4% (conditional on completion) 2036: 1.3% (conditional on completion) 2037: 0.8% (conditional on completion)2026now202720282029203030%EXPECTED2031203220332034203520362037
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
202914.2%
2030 (expected)30.5%
203124.0%
203214.4%
20338.0%
20344.4%
20352.4%
20361.3%
20370.8%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2030 Q2; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2028 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2031 Q3.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2030, likely range 2029–2032 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈77%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2027’28’29’30Commercial operation 2030 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026).

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Guangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配) ◇
expected — · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
~6,500 MW deep-sea allocation launched ~2024-07 (Beihai south sea-area: N sites 5,700 MW + P site 800 MW, ~94-120 km offshore). No settled result yet.

Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated

Related projects nearest first · owner and round: same country, most advanced first

Nearby

The China market →

Also Shanghai Electric

All 2 Shanghai Electric projects →

Sources & verification

Rests on 5 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Auction pipeline1
[6]
gdshe.org (relaying 北极星风力发电网)2024-07◆ cn-gx2024-launch
广西北海海上风电竞争性配置…N场址…规划容量570万千瓦，P场址规划容量80万千瓦 (~6,500 MW deep-sea), ~94-120 km offshore, 15-45 m depth.
supportsGuangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配)
source ↗
Trade press4
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Shandong Bandaobei N2 Offshore wind farm…
supportsownerConsentSite rightsTotal capacityFoundation+1 more
source ↗
[2]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
source ↗
[3]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
source ↗
[4]
Global Energy Monitor◆ Global Wind Power Tracker Methodology
“Offshore hard mount: have wind turbines that are usually designed for installation in water no deeper than 60 meters [...] These turbines are mounted directly onto the sea floor. Offshore floating: ar…”
supportsFoundation
source ↗