Name: CTG Fujian 20MW Demonstration (Turbine Test Site) — offshore wind project record
Creator: Hafrok
License: https://hafrok.com/terms/

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2028

expected year of commercial operation

The developer says 2026; Hafrok expects 2028 — 2 years later.

Chance of delivery

≈97% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. Technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

How Hafrok got this date

1

Starting point: the last dated milestone

Construction start in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.

2

Typical timing

Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2027 Q3; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026 Q4, the slower quarter not until 2028 Q3.

3

Result

Expected commercial operation 2028, likely range 2027–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2026) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.

4

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

5

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈97%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.

Revenue & offtake the regime the project was built under

Offtake regime: Demonstration / not commercial

RegimeDemonstration / not commercial

A built project sells its power under the contract or support regime it was financed with; it is not expected to bid into new government offtake rounds. Where the record does not yet name that regime, the row says so rather than guessing.