Hafrok

Lianjiang Outer Ocean

Status
Under Constructionlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
CRChina Resources Power — 100% ◇
Location
China
Taiwan Strait
Verification
5 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 700 MW ◇
Turbines —
Foundation Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴ Water depth 44–58 m ≈ Wind speed 10.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake —
Grid —
Schedule
FID Taken · date not recorded ∴
COD · Hafrok 2026 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2026
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈96% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. Its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2025: 12.6% (conditional on completion) 2026: 46.8% (conditional on completion) 2027: 28.2% (conditional on completion) 2028: 9.3% (conditional on completion) 2029: 2.5% (conditional on completion) 2030: 0.7% (conditional on completion)20252026now47%EXPECTED2027202820292030
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
202512.6%
2026 (expected)46.8%
202728.2%
20289.3%
20292.5%
20300.7%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in 2024. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2025 Q3; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2024 Q4, the slower quarter not until 2026 Q3. Dates already in the past are moved up to today — this project has run beyond the typical timing.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2026, likely range 2025–2027 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical build time from the construction start is used.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈96%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark

2024’25’26View the sources for Onshore constructionOnshore construction Dec 2023 ◇View the sources for Offshore constructionOffshore construction 31 Jul 2024 ◇Commercial operation 2026 ·Hafrok expected
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026).

Revenue & offtake the regime the project was built under

Offtake regime not on record
A built project sells its power under the contract or support regime it was financed with; it is not expected to bid into new government offtake rounds. Where the record does not yet name that regime, the row says so rather than guessing.

Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers

Installation under way
Installation · on record
StageUnder Construction
Offshore constructionstarted 2024-07-31
Turbinesnot reportedshown when the developer reports a dated count
Expected start of operationnot stated

Related projects nearest first · owner and round: same country, most advanced first

Nearby

The China market →

Also China Resources Power

All 3 China Resources Power projects →

Sources & verification

Rests on 5 sources · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Trade press5
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Fujian Lianjiang Outer Ocean (China Reso…
supportsownerConsentFinal investment decisionOnshore constructionOffshore construction+4 more
source ↗
[2]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
source ↗
[3]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
source ↗
[4]
Global Energy Monitor◆ Global Wind Power Tracker Methodology
“Offshore hard mount: have wind turbines that are usually designed for installation in water no deeper than 60 meters [...] These turbines are mounted directly onto the sea floor. Offshore floating: ar…”
supportsFoundation
source ↗
[5]
福州晚报 / 福州新闻网 (Fuzhou Evening News)2024-08-01◆ 华润连江外海海上风电场项目海上主体开始施工
Copyrighted source — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore constructionSite rights
source ↗