Mazu Island
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
FGFujian Guodian Wind Power — 45% ◆
FLFujian Longyuan New Energy — 45% ◆
WCWanhua Chemical Group — 10% ◆
Location
ChinaTaiwan Strait
Technology
Capacity
300 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held 2024-03 ◆
Water depth
43–49 m ≈
Wind speed
10.2 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2028 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈78%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; technical complexity pulls the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.2% |
| 2028 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2029 | 24.0% |
| 2030 | 14.4% |
| 2031 | 8.0% |
| 2032 | 4.4% |
| 2033 | 2.4% |
| 2034 | 1.3% |
| 2035 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2024. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2028 Q2; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2029 Q3.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2028, likely range 2027–2030 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈78%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026).
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Guangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配) ◇
~6,500 MW deep-sea allocation launched ~2024-07 (Beihai south sea-area: N sites 5,700 MW + P site 800 MW, ~94-120 km offshore). No settled result yet.
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
Rests on 6 sources (2 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator1
[5]
福建省发展和改革委员会 (Fujian Provincial Development and Reform Commission)2024-03-06◆ 福建省发展和改革委员会关于同意马祖岛外海上风电场项目核准的批复
“同意建设马祖岛外海上风电场项目 ... 项目单位为连江龙源万华新能源有限公司。 ... 其中，福建国电风力发电有限公司占股45%，福建龙源新能源有限公司占股45%，万华化学集团股份有限公司占股10%。 ... 项目予以核准决定或者同意变更决定之日起2年未开工建设、需要延期开工建设的，请你司在2年期限届满的30个工作日前，向我委申请延期开工建设。开工建设只能延期一次，期限最长不得超过1年。 ... …”
supportsownerConsentSite rightsConsent granted
Auction pipeline1
[8]
gdshe.org (relaying 北极星风力发电网)2024-07◆ cn-gx2024-launch
广西北海海上风电竞争性配置…N场址…规划容量570万千瓦，P场址规划容量80万千瓦 (~6,500 MW deep-sea), ~94-120 km offshore, 15-45 m depth.
supportsGuangxi Beihai Deep-Sea Offshore Wind Competitive Allocation (广西深远海竞配)
Trade press4
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Fujian Mazu Island Offshore wind farm - …
supportsTotal capacityFoundationCoordinates
[2]
[3]
[4]
Global Energy Monitor◆ Global Wind Power Tracker Methodology
“Offshore hard mount: have wind turbines that are usually designed for installation in water no deeper than 60 meters [...] These turbines are mounted directly onto the sea floor. Offshore floating: ar…”
supportsFoundation