Yangjiang Qingzhou VII
Status
Under Constructionlifecycle stage
DeliveringHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
CTChina Three Gorges — 100% ◇
Location
ChinaSouth China Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,000 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◇
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Water depth
41–49 m ≈
Wind speed
8.5 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Taken · date not recorded ∴
COD · Hafrok
2028 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈96%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. Its size, technical complexity and no offtake contract yet pull this one slightly below that.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.6% |
| 2028 (expected) | 46.8% |
| 2029 | 28.2% |
| 2030 | 9.3% |
| 2031 | 2.5% |
| 2032 | 0.7% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2027 Q3; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026 Q4, the slower quarter not until 2028 Q3.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2028, likely range 2027–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical build time from the construction start is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈96%, which rates it
Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026).
Revenue & offtake the regime the project was built under
Offtake regime not on record
A built project sells its power under the contract or support regime it was financed with; it is not expected to bid into new government offtake rounds. Where the record does not yet name that regime, the row says so rather than guessing.
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation under way
Installation · on record
StageUnder Construction
Offshore constructionstarted
Turbinesnot reportedshown when the developer reports a dated count
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
Rests on 5 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 3 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator1
[5]
中国长江三峡集团有限公司 (China Three Gorges Corporation)2026-09-29◆ 阳江青洲五、七期海上风电项目首批机组成功并网
“9月27日，随着首批5台机组叶片缓缓转动，三峡阳江青洲五、七期海上风电项目首批机组成功并网。作为全球最高电压等级和最大输送容量海上风电柔性直流送出工程，该项目的投入运行标志着我国深远海风电规模化开发迈出关键一步。”
supportsFirst power
Trade press4
[1]
Global Energy Monitor2026◆ Guangdong Yangjiang Qingzhou VII Offshor…
supportsownerConsentFinal investment decisionSite rightsTotal capacity+2 more
[2]
[3]
[4]
Global Energy Monitor◆ Global Wind Power Tracker Methodology
“Offshore hard mount: have wind turbines that are usually designed for installation in water no deeper than 60 meters [...] These turbines are mounted directly onto the sea floor. Offshore floating: ar…”
supportsFoundation