N-10.1
Failed auction August 2025 alongside N-10.2. Industry cited risks without revenue protection, deep water challenges, grid uncertainty.
Status
On Holdlifecycle stage
FragileHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
GermanyNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
2,000 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
State-designated State designation · Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH), Flächenentwicklungsplan 2019 · 2019-06 ◆
Water depth
39.5–42 m ◇
Distance from shore
120 km ◇
Wind speed
10.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Other ◇
Grid
Not recorded ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2033 ◇
COD · Hafrok
—
On hold since
1 Aug 2025 ◆
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
—
on hold — no credible date; the chart shows when a restarted project might complete
The developer's last guidance was 2033 · not treated as a schedule while the project is on hold
Chance of delivery
≈14%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Projects put on hold complete ≈15% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a very large build and technical complexity pull a little the other way. Only a restart would change that — there is no dated schedule to judge against.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2030 | 20.0% |
| 2031 | 20.0% |
| 2032 | 20.0% |
| 2033 | 20.0% |
| 2034 | 20.0% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
On hold — no dated schedule
The project is recorded as On Hold, so no sequence of milestones can be trusted. Hafrok publishes no expected year; the chart instead spreads the remaining chance of completion over the years a restarted project might finish in.
2
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of On Hold projects that went on to complete — ≈15%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Historically only a minority of projects put on hold returned to delivery — the estimate reflects that. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈14%, which rates it
Fragile on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
No award — August 2025 centrally pre-investigated site auction received zero bids. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Germany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster) ◇
indicative
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageOn Hold
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2033
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemBalWin2·2000 MW · ±525 kV · under construction, expected 2031
Export & onshore
Export cableBalWin2 Export Cable (Amprion)·HVDC subsea · 376 km · Prysmian · ordered · to Westerkappeln (onshore converter)
Converter supplierSiemens Energy·BalWin2 · Dragados Offshore (Cádiz, Spain) — topside; Aker Solutions (Verdal, Norway) — steel substructure · for Amprion
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
Rests on 9 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[1]
Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH)2025◆ BSH - Homepage - Offshore: BSH publishes…
“The sites N-10.1 and N-10.2 are located in the German EEZ of the North Sea, around 120 kilometers distant from the island of Helgoland. The water depths in this area are between 39.5 and 42 meters, ba…”
supportsTotal capacityWater depthDistance from shore
[7]
Bundesnetzagentur2025-08◆ Ausschreibungen nach § 50 WindSeeG für d…
“Für die ausgeschriebenen Flächen N-10.1 und N-10.2 wurden zum Gebotstermin 01.08.2025 keine Gebote abgegeben.”
supportsOn hold
[8]
Bundesamt für Seeschifffahrt und Hydrographie (BSH), via Danish Environmental Protection Agency (Espoo/SEA notification)2024-08-06◆ BSH SEA-protocol notification to Denmark…
“Indledningen af proceduren for den indledende undersøgelse af arealerne N-10.1 og N-10.2 på grundlag af arealudviklingsplanen for 2019 blev annonceret den 4. december 2020 i overensstemmelse med § 12,…”
supportsSite rights
Auction pipeline1
[11]
Bundesnetzagentur2026◆ bnetza-noncentral-2027
BNetzA — 2026 non-central offshore tenders suspended; N-10.1/N-10.2/N-12.4/N-12.5/N-13.1/N-13.2 moved to tender year 2027.
supportsGermany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster)
Trade press5
[2]
Windtech International (reporting BNetzA auction result)2025-08
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentStatus
[3]
Offshore Wind (offshorewind.biz)2025-08-06
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsMechanismDetailOfftake history
[4]
Offshore Wind (offshorewind.biz)2026-01-29
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operation
[5]
4C Offshore2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[6]