Oleron 1 (Sud-Atlantique)
Part of the broader Sud-Atlantique offshore wind initiative. Located approximately 40 km off Ile d'Oleron in the Bay of Biscay, covering 180 km2.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
FranceNortheast Atlantic
Technology
Capacity
1,000 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
State-designated State designation · Ministre de la Transition énergétique (décision publiée au Journal officiel) · 2022-07 ◆
Water depth
60–60 m ◇
Distance from shore
40 km ◇
Wind speed
8.4 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Other ◇
Grid
No agreement · Mar 2025 ◆
Connection
RTE-Nexans HVDC cable framework agreement (announced 25 March … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Previously on hold
24 Sep 2025 → 12 Jun 2026 ◆
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈58%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits below that: a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.2% |
| 2034 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2035 | 24.0% |
| 2036 | 14.4% |
| 2037 | 8.0% |
| 2038 | 4.4% |
| 2039 | 2.4% |
| 2040 | 1.3% |
| 2041 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2034 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: FR-AO10-PLURIANNUAL
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2027 Q3; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2029 Q3), then build time on top gives 2032 Q3. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2040 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈58%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026).
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
AO7 French offshore CRE tender — zero bids submitted by April 2025 deadline; tender officially failed September 2025. No offtake contract awarded. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
France AO10 (pluriannual offshore tender, ~10 GW) ◇
LAUNCHED 11-12 June 2026 (call-for-tenders notice + CRE technical specs); bid deadline 12 Oct 2026; CRE opinion early 2027; ministerial award Feb 2027.
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemOleron HVDC (Offshore)·1250 MW · ±320 kV · ordered, expected 2033
HVDC systemOleron HVDC (Onshore)·1250 MW · ±320 kV · ordered, expected 2033
Export & onshore
Export cableOleron Export Cable·HVDC subsea · Nexans · planned · to Onshore converter (TBD)
Converter supplierHitachi Energy·Oleron HVDC (Offshore) · Chantiers de l'Atlantique (Saint-Nazaire) · for RTE
Converter supplierHitachi Energy·Oleron HVDC (Onshore) · Chantiers de l'Atlantique (Saint-Nazaire) · for RTE
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
Rests on 9 sources (4 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator4
[2]
RWE2023-08-31◆ RWE and VALOREM have partnered to jointl…
“AO7 South Atlantic offshore wind project: approximately 1,000 MW installed capacity, some 40 kilometres off the coast of Oléron Island, water depth around 60 metres average, maximum project area 180 k…”
supportsTotal capacityWater depthDistance from shore
[6]
Nexans2025-03-25◆ Nexans wins major frame agreement with r…
“Nexans has secured a major framework agreement with RTE for the design, manufacturing, and supply of HVDC cables, which will be used to connect the Centre Manche 1 & 2 and Oléron offshore wind farms t…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[7]
DGEC — Ministère de la Transition écologique (eoliennesenmer.fr)2026-08-25◆ French Eoliennes en mer register (DGEC),…
“Register node 807 (node--type-project) at /facades-maritimes-en-france/facade-sud-atlantique/oleron/oleron-1 — title 'Oleron 1'; page text 5836 chars, hash b714449db0b63eea…. Identifying text: Le parc…”
supportsRegister entry
[8]
Ministère de la Transition écologique (eoliennesenmer.fr)2026-10◆ Oléron 1 — project page (AO10 timeline)
“Le parc éolien en mer posé Oléron 1 fait l'objet du dixième appel d'offres lancé en 2026. [...] 24 septembre 2025 : Infructuosité du 7e appel d'offres éolien en mer "Oléron 1" Communiqué de presse 12 …”
supportsPreviously on holdSite rightsOn hold
Auction pipeline1
[9]
CRE2026◆ cre-ao10-avis
CRE avis on the AO10 cahier des charges — one procedure, ~11 parks / ~10 GW, fixed + floating.
supportsFrance AO10 (pluriannual offshore tender, ~10 GW)
Trade press4
[1]
Offshore Wind Biz2025-09-24◆ No Bids Submitted for 1 GW Oléron Offsho…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentCOD historyTotal capacityMechanismDetail+2 more
[3]
Enerdata2022
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
[4]
[5]