Aphae Offshore Wind Farm
Located near Aphae Island, South Jeolla. Smallest of the H1 2025 tender winners.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
WGWoori Green Energy — 100% ◆
Location
South KoreaYellow Sea
Technology
Capacity
80 MW ◇
Turbines
— ◇
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed ◆
Water depth
11–22 m ≈
Wind speed
7.8 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Certificate ◇
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2028 ○
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2028; Hafrok expects 2030 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈79%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 14.2% |
| 2030 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2031 | 24.0% |
| 2032 | 14.4% |
| 2033 | 8.0% |
| 2034 | 4.4% |
| 2035 | 2.4% |
| 2036 | 1.3% |
| 2037 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2030 Q1; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2031 Q1.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2030–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2028) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈79%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
80 MW contracted — utility PPA
● Utility PPA · South Korea 2025 H1 Offshore Wind Auction (public-led + general)
Priceprice undisclosed ·Capacity80 MWAwardedSep 2025Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2028
Sources & verification
Rests on 10 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 5 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator1
[9]
Shinan County (신안군)2026-04-01◆ 신안군 공고 제2026-477호 해상풍력 발전단지 건설에 따른 공유수면 …
“가. 신 청 자 : ㈜압해풍력발전소”
supportsConsentSite rights
Auction results1
[10]
Shin and Kim2026-06-22◆ kr-rps-wind-2025h1-offshore-kr-rps-terms
Korea RPS fixed-price offshore: completion-period bands 60/72/78 months; REC-price cut / cancellation on miss
supportsUtility PPA · South Korea 2025 H1 Offshore Wind Auction (public-led + general)
Trade press7
[2]
Global Energy Monitor2025-09
“1 Pre-construction 2028 (planned) 84 MW ... Woori Green Energy Co Ltd [100%] (우리그린에너지 (주))”
supportsowner
[3]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-09-03
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsUnit capacityTotal capacity
[4]
[5]
[6]
4C Offshore2026◆ Sinan - Aphae Offshore Wind Farm - Conse…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentSite rights
[7]
[8]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-09-03◆ South Korea Awards 689 MW of Offshore Wi…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsMechanismDetail
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown◆ South Korea Awards 689 MW of Offshore Wi…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operationUnit capacityTotal capacityWater depthCoordinates