Doordewind II
Second 2 GW site in Doordewind zone. Located ~77 km off north coast of Netherlands. Development deferred — will only proceed after Doordewind I.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
NetherlandsNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
2,000 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
State-designated Doordewind I / II + further roadmap (HKW VIII, North of Wadden I) ∴
Water depth
37–39 m ≈
Distance from shore
77 km ◇
Wind speed
10.3 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Other ◇
Grid
No agreement ◇
Connection
TenneT offshore platform with HVDC cable to Eemshaven (PAWOZ … ◇
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2033 ◇
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2033; Hafrok expects 2034 — 1 year later.
Chance of delivery
≈55%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. This one sits well below that: a very large build and technical complexity. A secured offtake contract helps only slightly.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.2% |
| 2034 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2035 | 24.0% |
| 2036 | 14.4% |
| 2037 | 8.0% |
| 2038 | 4.4% |
| 2039 | 2.4% |
| 2040 | 1.3% |
| 2041 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2034 is not credible.3
Still needs an offtake award: NL-IJMUIDEN-VER-GAMMA-A
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q1. The milestone timing is already later than that, so it stands.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2042 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈55%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
No tender scheduled. Netherlands planning CfD-style mechanism from 2027 for Doordewind zone. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Doordewind I / II + further roadmap (HKW VIII, North of Wadden I) ◇
indicative
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2033
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemDoordewind 2·2000 MW · ±525 kV · planned, expected 2033
Export & onshore
Export cableDoordewind 2 Export Cable·HVDC subsea · 126 km · NKT · planned · to Eemshaven
Onshore connectionEemshaven Converter Station (Doordewind 2)·525 DC / 380 AC kV · planning
Converter supplierHitachi Energy·Doordewind 2 · not yet named (Hitachi Energy / L&T consortium) · for TenneT
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
Rests on 8 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[2]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2026-04-03◆ Wind op zee - Doordewind | RVO.nl
“The planned wind park can have a maximum installed capacity of 4 gigawatts across kavels I, II, III, and IV in the Doordewind zone. Ministers of Climate & Green Growth and Housing & Spatial Planning i…”
supportsConsentStatusConnection point
[3]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2026-06-01◆ RVO new offshore wind farms roadmap
“New wind farm zones are being designated in Search areas 6/7 and expanded Doordewind zones. Ecological research is currently underway to determine feasibility before full designation in future North S…”
supportsMechanismDetailOfftake history
[7]
RVO — Bureau Energieprojecten (energietransitie.nl)2026-08-23◆ Dutch Bureau Energieprojecten register (…
“Listing row "Wind op zee - Doordewind" (key wind-op-zee-doordewind); offshore docket page text hash 13a01fcbd9072a42… (5383 chars). Listing row "Net op zee - Doordewind" (key net-op-zee-doordewind); o…”
supportsRegister entry
Auction pipeline1
[8]
RVO2026◆ rvo-roadmap-2026
RVO roadmap — Doordewind I/II, HKW VIII, North of the Wadden Islands I planned; Lagelander removed ("no wind farms will be developed").
supportsDoordewind I / II + further roadmap (HKW VIII, North of Wadden I)
Trade press4
[1]
[4]
4C Offshore2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[5]
[6]