Southwest Offshore Wind Phase 2
Adjacent to Southwest Demo (60 MW, operational). Located in Yellow Sea off South Jeolla.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
KOKorea Offshore Wind Power — 100% ◇
Location
South KoreaYellow Sea
Technology
Capacity
400 MW ◇
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed 2021-02 ◇
Water depth
11–16 m ≈
Wind speed
7.2 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Certificate ◇
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2028 ○
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2028; Hafrok expects 2030 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈79%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 14.2% |
| 2030 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2031 | 24.0% |
| 2032 | 14.4% |
| 2033 | 8.0% |
| 2034 | 4.4% |
| 2035 | 2.4% |
| 2036 | 1.3% |
| 2037 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2030 Q1; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2031 Q1.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2030–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2028) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈79%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
400 MW contracted — utility PPA
● Utility PPA · South Korea 2025 H1 Offshore Wind Auction (public-led + general)
Priceprice undisclosed ·Capacity400 MWAwardedSep 2025Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2028
Sources & verification
Rests on 10 sources · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Auction results1
[10]
Shin and Kim2026-06-22◆ kr-rps-wind-2025h1-offshore-kr-rps-terms
Korea RPS fixed-price offshore: completion-period bands 60/72/78 months; REC-price cut / cancellation on miss
supportsUtility PPA · South Korea 2025 H1 Offshore Wind Auction (public-led + general)
Trade press8
[2]
NS Energy2025-04
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperator
[3]
[4]
[5]
4C Offshore2026◆ Southwest Offshore - phase 2 Offshore Wi…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent applied
[6]
[7]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-09-03◆ South Korea Awards 689 MW of Offshore Wi…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsMechanismDetail
[8]
Electric Power Journal (EPJ)2025-09-23◆ KOWP CEO interview
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent applied
[9]
Electimes (전기신문)2024-05-23◆ KOWP CEO: EIA consultation complete
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent applied
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown◆ South Korea Awards 689 MW of Offshore Wi…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operationTotal capacityWater depthCoordinates