Nederwiek I-A
Located in southern part of Nederwiek wind energy zone, 95 km off Texel. Total site area ~149 km2.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
—
Location
NetherlandsNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,000 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held 2025-04 ◆
Water depth
24–30 m ≈
Wind speed
10.1 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Offered ◆
Connection
TenneT Nederwiek 1 HVDC platform (2 GW DC, onshore landing … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2032 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2032
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈76%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2031 | 14.2% |
| 2032 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2033 | 24.0% |
| 2034 | 14.4% |
| 2035 | 8.0% |
| 2036 | 4.4% |
| 2037 | 2.4% |
| 2038 | 1.3% |
| 2039 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2029 Q2; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2030 Q3.3
Still needs an offtake award: NL-IJMUIDEN-VER-GAMMA-A
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q1. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2032, likely range 2031–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The auction step above sets the date: the round has to be won before building can start.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈76%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026).
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
Zero-subsidy tender (October 2025) received no bids. 2026 retender allocated to IJmuiden Ver Gamma-A site, not Nederwiek I-A. No offtake mechanism in place. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemNederwiek 1·2000 MW · ±525 kV · ordered, expected 2030
Export & onshore
Export cableNederwiek 1 Export Cable·HVDC subsea · 217 km · Prysmian · ordered · to Sloegebied, Zeeland
Onshore connectionBorssele Converter Station (Nederwiek 1)·525 DC / 380 AC kV · under construction · also serves Nederwiek I-B
Converter supplierHitachi Energy·Nederwiek 1 · not yet named (originally Petrofac EPCI, now L&T) · for TenneT
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
Rests on 11 sources (7 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator3
[6]
Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO)2025-10◆ Permit for wind farm Nederwiek I-A | RVO…
“The available permit was for construction and operation of a wind farm with a capacity of 1 gigawatt (GW). [...] The platform has a 2 GW direct current (DC) connection to an onshore substation in the …”
supportsTotal capacityStatusConnection point
[8]
Netherlands Enterprise Agency (RVO)2026-02◆ RVO IJmuiden Ver Gamma-A tender opens 20…
“In October 2025, RVO received no applications for the construction and operation of a wind farm at the Nederwiek site I-A. The subsidy should now encourage developers to apply for a permit for IJV Gam…”
supportsDetailOfftake history
[16]
RVO — Bureau Energieprojecten (energietransitie.nl)2026-08-23◆ Dutch Bureau Energieprojecten register (…
“Listing row "Wind op zee - Nederwiek (zuid) kavel I-A" (key wind-op-zee-nederwiek-zuid-kavel-i-a); offshore docket page text hash 8f14cf1da7dd3663… (4963 chars). Listing row "Net op zee - Nederwiek 1"…”
supportsRegister entry
Operator2
[17]
Staatscourant (Koninkrijk der Nederlanden)2025-05-16◆ Staatscourant 2025-13171: Kavelbesluit I…
“Den Haag, 9 april 2025”
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent appliedConsent granted
[18]
Staatscourant (Koninkrijk der Nederlanden)2024-11-21◆ Staatscourant 2024-38328: Kennisgeving o…
“Van vrijdag 22 november tot en met donderdag 2 januari 2025 ligt het ontwerpkavelbesluit”
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent appliedConsent granted
Auction pipeline1
[19]
RVO2026◆ rvo-gamma-a-2026
RVO — IJmuiden Ver Gamma-A (~1 GW) permit applications open September 2026; subsidy-backed, EUR 104/MWh cap.
supportsIJmuiden Ver Gamma-A
Trade press4
[11]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-10
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
[13]
[14]
[15]
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityWater depth