Hafrok

IJmuiden Ver Beta Phase 1 (Zeevonk)

Zeevonk consortium originally planned 2 GW + 50 MW floating solar + 1 GW electrolyser at Maasvlakte.

Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Vattenfall — 50% ◆
Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners — 50% ◆
Location
Netherlands
North Sea
Verification
16 sources · ◆ 10 documents held
◆verified≈modelled◇sourced∴inferred·derived
open the source register →
Technology
Capacity 1,000 MW ◆
Turbines —
Foundation Monopile ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights Seabed rights held ∴
Origination IJmuiden Ver Sites Alpha & Beta · 2024 ·
Water depth 24–32 m ≈ Wind speed 10.0 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake PPA ◆ Grid Offered ◆ Connection TenneT 2 GW HVDC platform (Beta), connecting to onshore grid … ◆
Schedule
FID Not taken
COD · announced 2030 ◆
COD · Hafrok 2032 expected

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2032
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2030; Hafrok expects 2032 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈82% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
20%40%60%80%100% 2031: 14.2% (conditional on completion) 2032: 30.5% (conditional on completion) 2033: 24.0% (conditional on completion) 2034: 14.4% (conditional on completion) 2035: 8.0% (conditional on completion) 2036: 4.4% (conditional on completion) 2037: 2.4% (conditional on completion) 2038: 1.3% (conditional on completion) 2039: 0.8% (conditional on completion)2026now20282030203230%EXPECTED203420362038 Developer-announced COD: 2030 ANNOUNCED 2030developer cod guidance2025-Q3: the developer guided 2029 — source [14] — click for it2025-Q32029 [14]2026-07-17: the developer guided 2030 — source [13] — click for it2026-072030 [13]
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
203114.2%
2032 (expected)30.5%
203324.0%
203414.4%
20358.0%
20364.4%
20372.4%
20381.3%
20390.8%
Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
StatedAnnounced COD
2025-Q32029
2026-07-172030
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in 2024. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2028 Q2; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2029 Q3.
3
Still needs an offtake award: NL-IJMUIDEN-VER-GAMMA-A
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around 2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q1. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.
4
Result
Expected commercial operation 2032, likely range 2031–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2030) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.
5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈82%, which rates it Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2024’25’26’27’28’29’30’31’32Developer-announced COD: 2030 announced COD 2030View the source for Consent appliedConsent applied 2024-Q1 ◆View the source for Consent grantedConsent granted 11 Jun 2024 ◆IJmuiden Ver Sites Alpha & Beta — awarded to Zeevonk II (Vattenfall + Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners)IJmuiden Ver Sites Alpha & Beta Jun 2024 · auction recordCommercial operation 2032 ·Hafrok expectedIJmuiden Ver Sites Alpha & Beta — awarded to Zeevonk II (Vattenfall + Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners) 2024-06 ORIGINATIONTODAYVattenfall — 50% today · operator Vattenfall Vattenfall 50%Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners — 50% today CIP CIP 50%IJmuiden Ver Sites Alpha & Beta — awarded to Zeevonk II (Vattenfall + Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners)
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: slipped so far +1.0 yr (first announced 2029) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open

Zero-subsidy (merchant/hydrogen route). A 250 MW Google corporate PPA (signed by Dec 2024) covers part of the Zeevonk project; phase not named in the source; not counted as secured offtake (owner 2026-10-11). ◇

The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
IJmuiden Ver Gamma-A ◇
expected H2 2026 · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project
announced

Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Installation contracts
FoundationsOrion◇Deme · foundation installation vessel · Contracted Offshore substationSleipnir◇Heerema · heavy-lift vessel · 2027 → 2028-H2 · Contracted
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemIJmuiden Ver Beta·2000 MW · ±525 kV · under construction, expected 2029
Export & onshore
Export cableIJmuiden Ver Beta Export Cable·HVDC subsea · 163 km · NKT · ordered · to Maasvlakte, Port of Rotterdam
Onshore connectionAmaliahaven Substation (Maasvlakte)·380 kV · under construction · also serves IJmuiden Ver Beta Phase 2 (Zeevonk), IJmuiden Ver Gamma-A, IJmuiden Ver Gamma-B, Nederwiek II
Onshore connectionMaasvlakte Converter Station (IJmuiden Ver Beta)·525 DC / 380 AC kV · under construction · also serves IJmuiden Ver Beta Phase 2 (Zeevonk)
Converter supplierGE Vernova·IJmuiden Ver Beta · Seatrium (Singapore + Batam, Indonesia) · for TenneT
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
2026202720282029203020312032Hafrok expects the farm to start in 2032developer’s stated start 2030nowIJmuiden Ver BetaIJmuiden Ver Betaexpected 2029expected 2029Amaliahaven Substation (Maasvlakte)Amaliahaven Substation (Maasvlakt…expected 2027-Q1expected 2027-Q1Maasvlakte Converter Station (IJmuiden Ver Beta)Maasvlakte Converter Station (IJm…expected 2028expected 2028IJmuiden Ver Beta Export CableIJmuiden Ver Beta Export Cableexpected 2029expected 2029

Related projects nearest first · owner and round: same country, most advanced first

Nearby

The Netherlands market →

Also Vattenfall

All 25 Vattenfall projects →

Sources & verification

Rests on 16 sources (9 primary) · ◆ 10 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator4
[4]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2024-06-11◆ RVO IJmuiden Ver Alpha & Beta results
“The permit for the IJmuiden Ver Wind Farm Site Beta goes to Zeevonk II. These are the largest Dutch wind farms in the North Sea to date. Combined, they provide 4 gigawatts (GW) of wind energy capacity…”
supportsoperatorownerConsentConsent granted
source ↗
[5]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2025-10◆ Permits for wind farms at IJmuiden Ver A…
“On 6 August 2025, the permit for IJmuiden Ver Site Beta was amended. This permit became irrevocable on 17 October 2025.”
supportsConsent applied
source ↗
[8]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2023-11◆ Project and Site Description IJmuiden Ve…
“TSO TenneT will construct two offshore substation platforms with grid connections for IJVWFS Alpha and IJVWFS Beta.”
supportsStatusConnection point
source ↗
[15]
RVO — Bureau Energieprojecten (energietransitie.nl)2026-08-23◆ Dutch Bureau Energieprojecten register (…
“Listing row "Wind op zee - IJmuiden Ver kavels Alpha en Beta" (key wind-op-zee-ijmuiden-ver-kavels-alpha-en-beta); offshore docket page text hash a7ed4aac4252b523… (3819 chars).”
supportsRegister entry
source ↗
Operator4
[6]
WindpowerNL2025-08-08
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
source ↗
[7]
Offshore Wind Biz2024-12-18◆ Google buys offshore wind power from Vat…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsMechanismDetailOfftake history
source ↗
[13]
Vattenfall2026-07-17◆ Vattenfall — vattenfall q2 presentation …
“NL Zeevonk phase 1 (Ijmuiden Ver Beta) 1,000 50 2030 Bid awarded in June 2024, partnering with CIP, phased development, preparing”
supportsCommercial operationCOD history
source ↗
[16]
DEME2026-07-20◆ Deme awarded contract foundation install…
“DEME has been awarded a substantial contract for the transport and installation of foundations for phase 1 of the Zeevonk offshore wind project in the Netherlands. Zeevonk, jointly owned by Vattenfall…”
supportsFoundation
source ↗
Auction pipeline1
[17]
RVO2026◆ rvo-gamma-a-2026
RVO — IJmuiden Ver Gamma-A (~1 GW) permit applications open September 2026; subsidy-backed, EUR 104/MWh cap.
supportsIJmuiden Ver Gamma-A
source ↗
Record source2
[18]
Vattenfall2026-07-20◆ vattenfall-zeevonk-deme-award-2026-07
The works will be carried out using several vessels from DEME's fleet, including the offshore installation vessel Orion for monopile installation, supported by a jack-up vessel for secondary steel and…
supportsOrion — foundation installation
source ↗
[19]
offshore-energy.biz / offshoreWIND.biz2026-08-31◆ oe-ijv-beta-jacket-2026-08
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsSleipnir — substation installation
source ↗
Trade press4
[9]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-08
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
source ↗
[10]
4C Offshore2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
source ↗
[11]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
source ↗
[12]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
source ↗
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityWater depthCoordinates
source ↗