Name: YouDe Offshore Wind — offshore wind project record
Creator: Hafrok
License: https://hafrok.com/terms/

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2034

expected year of commercial operation

The developer says 2029; Hafrok expects 2034 — 5 years later.

Chance of delivery

≈60% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation

Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.

COD outlook

If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)

How Hafrok got this date

1

No dated milestone yet

Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.

2

Earliest credible date

Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before 2034 is not credible.

3

Result

Expected commercial operation 2034, likely range 2034–2042 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.

4

Year-by-year chart

The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.

5

Chance of delivery — separate from timing

Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈60%, which rates it Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Revenue & offtake route to market — open

No offtake secured — route to market open

Round 3.2 zero-FIT CPPA (no signed agreement confirmed as of 2026-06-15) ◇

The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.

Next visible round · from the auction calendar

Taiwan Round 3 Zonal Development — Block 3.3 (區塊開發 3-3) ◇

expected H2 2026 · scheduled · the round’s published documents do not name this project

Applications opened 1 April 2026 and closed 30 September 2026 (MOEA release of that day); the ministry says it will complete selection and announce the capacity allocation before the end of 2026 (今(2026)年底前完成選商作業及公告容量分配結果).