O-2.2
100 km2 site, 40 km from coast. TotalEnergies bid EUR 2.07 million/MW. Part of 7 GW auction (3x North Sea, 1x Baltic). Grid connection target end of 2030.
Status
Early Developmentlifecycle stage
ProspectiveHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
TotalEnergies — 100% ◆Location
GermanyBaltic Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,000 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
BNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2023 (dynamic bidding / concession) · 2023 ·
Water depth
42–46 m ≈
Wind speed
10.0 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Merchant ◆
Grid
Offered · Jul 2023 ◆
Connection
Ostwind 4 HVDC (525 kV, 2 GW); 50Hertz ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2034 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2034
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈62%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Early Development projects complete ≈61% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2033 | 14.2% |
| 2034 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2035 | 24.0% |
| 2036 | 14.4% |
| 2037 | 8.0% |
| 2038 | 4.4% |
| 2039 | 2.4% |
| 2040 | 1.3% |
| 2041 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
No dated milestone yet
Nothing is consented or financed with a date, so the estimate starts from today (
2026), adds the time similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took from consent to operation, plus an allowance for obtaining consent.2
Earliest credible date
Typical consent-to-operation time plus allowances means commercial operation before
2034 is not credible.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2034, likely range 2034–2042 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). With no milestone to build from, the earliest credible date is the estimate, with a deliberately wide range.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Early Development projects that went on to complete — ≈61%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). About three in four early-stage projects with a final outcome went on to operate — a record from an easier era. Most of today's early pipeline is still unresolved, so the estimate discounts it. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈62%, which rates it
Prospective on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2023-07
BNetzA Offshore Wind Auction 2023 (dynamic bidding / concession)
- Awarded to
- Baltic Sea OFW O2-2 GmbH & Co. KG
- Basis
- integrated tender
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
Zero-subsidy dynamic auction (EUR 2.07m/MW premium bid; 72 rounds). No signed PPA or CfD exists. Offtake route is merchant/market. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
Germany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster) ◇
indicative
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageEarly Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 0
Platformnone on the register
Export & onshore
Onshore connectionBrünzow Converter Station (Ostwind 4)·525 DC / 380 AC kV · planning
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
Rests on 10 sources (1 primary) · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[2]
Bundesnetzagentur (BNetzA)2023-07-12◆ BNetzA 2023 offshore auction results - d…
“Three sites for offshore wind farms, each with a capacity of 2,000 MW , are located in the North Sea and one site with a capacity of 1,000 MW is located in the Baltic Sea. The sites in the North Sea (…”
supportsTotal capacityMechanismDetailStatusConnection point+1 more
[7]
Operator2
[3]
[6]
Auction pipeline1
[11]
Bundesnetzagentur2026◆ bnetza-noncentral-2027
BNetzA — 2026 non-central offshore tenders suspended; N-10.1/N-10.2/N-12.4/N-12.5/N-13.1/N-13.2 moved to tender year 2027.
supportsGermany offshore tender — 2027 (FEP cluster)
Trade press4
[4]
[8]
4C Offshore2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[9]
[10]
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacityWater depthCoordinates