Dadaepo Offshore Wind Farm
Located near Dadaepo/Busan area. KOSPO is Korea Southern Power, a state-owned utility.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
KSKorea Southern Power — 50% ◆
Corio Generation — 50% ◆Location
South KoreaSea of Japan (East Sea)
Technology
Capacity
99 MW ◇
Turbines
— ◇
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Application filed 2020-07 ◆
Water depth
30–41 m ≈
Wind speed
7.9 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
Certificate ◇
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2028 ○
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2028; Hafrok expects 2030 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈78%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a market with a thinner delivery record and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 14.2% |
| 2030 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2031 | 24.0% |
| 2032 | 14.4% |
| 2033 | 8.0% |
| 2034 | 4.4% |
| 2035 | 2.4% |
| 2036 | 1.3% |
| 2037 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2030 Q1; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2031 Q1.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2030–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2028) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈78%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline verified milestones only — each date carries its provenance mark
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
99 MW contracted — utility PPA
● Utility PPA · South Korea 2025 H1 Offshore Wind Auction (public-led + general)
Priceprice undisclosed ·Capacity99 MWAwardedSep 2025Term20 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2028
Sources & verification
Rests on 11 sources · ◆ 4 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator2
[2]
BusinessKorea2026-04◆ Macquarie Exits Korea Offshore Wind, Scr…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatorowner
[7]
Auction results1
[13]
Shin and Kim2026-06-22◆ kr-rps-wind-2025h1-offshore-kr-rps-terms
Korea RPS fixed-price offshore: completion-period bands 60/72/78 months; REC-price cut / cancellation on miss
supportsUtility PPA · South Korea 2025 H1 Offshore Wind Auction (public-led + general)
Trade press7
[3]
Offshore Wind Biz2025
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsUnit capacityTotal capacity
[4]
4C Offshore2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[5]
[8]
[9]
Yonhap News (연합뉴스)2025-03-16
“2020년 7월 발전사업허가를 받은 다대포 해상풍력사업은 해양 물리탐사·지반조사, 수중 문화재지표조사, 해양 교통안전진단 등 까다로운 해상풍력 인허가를 차례로 통과했고 환경영향평가와 최종 인허가 단계만 남겨두고 있다.”
supportsConsentSite rightsConsent applied
[10]
[11]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-09-03◆ South Korea Awards 689 MW of Offshore Wi…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsMechanismDetail
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown◆ South Korea Awards 689 MW of Offshore Wi…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operationUnit capacityTotal capacityWater depthCoordinates