Baltica 3
Part of 2.5 GW Baltica complex with Baltica 2. Located off Ustka coast, at least 25 km from shore. Will share some infrastructure with Baltica 2.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Location
PolandBaltic Sea
Technology
Capacity
1,045 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative) · 2021 ·
Water depth
31–44 m ≈
Distance from shore
25 km ◇
Wind speed
9.8 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · 319.6 PLN/MWh ◆
Grid
Secured ◆
Connection
Grid connection agreement with PSE (Polish transmission system … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2030 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2030
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈81%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity weigh only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2029 | 14.2% |
| 2030 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2031 | 24.0% |
| 2032 | 14.4% |
| 2033 | 8.0% |
| 2034 | 4.4% |
| 2035 | 2.4% |
| 2036 | 1.3% |
| 2037 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2030 Q1; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2029 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2031 Q1.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2030, likely range 2030–2031 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈81%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2021-06
Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
- Awarded to
- PGE / Ørsted
- Basis
- integrated tender
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Farmdown · 2021-02
PGE → Ørsted 50%
- Stake
- 50%
- Consideration
- €60.0m
- Implied 100% value
- €120m
- Implied
- €0.12m / MW
- Basis
- Share of costs, not a price
- Announced
- 2021-02
- Closed
- 2021-05
- Project stage
- pre-FID
Same transaction as Baltica 2 JV formation — Ørsted and PGE 50/50 JV announced 10 February 2021, closed mid-May 2021. Combined PLN 657M (~EUR 146M) subscription price for new shares in both Baltica 2 and Baltica 3. Baltica 3 had environmental decision (January 2020), location permit, and CfD eligibility in 2021 (awarded PLN 319.60/MWh). FID not yet taken as of early 2026; expected post Baltica 2 ramp-up. Note: implied EUR/MW is a development-cost entry, not market valuation. EUR figure at the ECB 2021-02 monthly average (0.2224 EUR per PLN).
Evidence
- orsted.com — Ørsted and PGE form 50-50 joint venture on Baltica 2 and 3 ↗ 2021-02 ◆ held
- globenewswire.com — Ørsted and PGE form 50-50 joint venture on Baltica 2 and 3 ↗ ◆ held
- orsted.com — PGE and Ørsted have closed the joint venture agreement for Polish offshore wind projects ↗ 2021-02 ◆ held
From Hafrok’s transactions record
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day
1,045 MW contracted — tender award
● Tender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
Price319.6 PLN/MWh ·Capacity1,045 MWAwardedJun 2021Term25 yrs
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
Rests on 12 sources (8 primary) · ◆ 6 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator4
[6]
PGE Baltica2025-01
"Baltica-3 Wind Farm (EWB3) with a maximum capacity of up to 1 036 MW." "Both stages have: location decisions (PSzW), environmental decisions, contracts for connection to the transmission network with…
supportsConsentStatusConnection point
[7]
Ørsted A/S2025-02◆ Ørsted Annual Report 2024
“1,255 MW 1 Baltica 3 Commercial operation date: n.a. Working collaboratively on the reconfiguration and revised schedule of Baltica 3, together with our partner PGE. … 1 Capacity includes both Baltica…”
supportsTotal capacity
[8]
Ørsted A/S2026-05◆ Ørsted IR presentation Q1 2026
“Includes Baltica 3 (1,045 MW) and awarded lease capacity for Baltica 2+ (210 MW). Baltica 2+ has not received a CfD. … [Baltica 3] Expected completion: Pending FID.”
supportsTotal capacity
[15]
Ørsted A/S2026-Q1◆ Ørsted IR presentation Q1 2026
“Includes Baltica 3 (1,045 MW) and awarded lease capacity for Baltica 2+ (210 MW). Baltica 2+ has not received a CfD.”
supportsTotal capacity
Auction results1
[16]
Norton Rose Fulbright2026-06-22◆ pl-phase1-admin-cfd-2021-pl-owa
Poland Offshore Wind Act CfD: PLN 60,000/MW security, first power within 7 years of decision/auction-close
supportsTender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
Trade press6
[4]
GlobeNewswire / Ørsted2021-02-10◆ Ørsted and PGE form 50-50 joint venture …
"Ørsted will subscribe for new shares representing 50% of the total share capital" in the two offshore wind projects Baltica 3 (Elektrownia Wiatrowa Baltica-3 sp. z o.o.) and Baltica 2 (Elektrownia Wi…
supportsowner
[5]
GlobeNewswire / Ørsted2021-04-07◆ Poland awards Contract for Difference to…
“The President of the Polish Energy Regulatory Office (ERO) has awarded the Baltica Offshore Wind Farm a Contract for Difference (CfD) at a maximum of PLN 319.60/MWh in accordance with the Decree of th…”
supportsMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[11]
[12]
[13]
[14]
Unverified import1
[1]