Baltyk 2

Twin project with Baltyk 3, combined 1,440 MW. Located off Ustka coast. Landfall via horizontal directional drilling near Ustka.

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈98% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; a market with a thinner delivery record, its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
20%40%60%80%100% 2027: 1.3% (conditional on completion) 2028: 75.4% (conditional on completion) 2029: 21.7% (conditional on completion) 2030: 1.6% (conditional on completion)2026now2027202875%20292030 Developer-announced COD: 2028 — in line with Hafrok’s expected year ANNOUNCED = EXPECTED 2028developer cod guidance2025-05 → 2026-07: the developer guided 2028 in 5 statements — sources [2] [1] [16] [17] [19] — click for the sources2026-072028 · held since 2025-05 (×5) [2 +4]
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
20271.3%
2028 (expected)75.4%
202921.7%
20301.6%
Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
StatedAnnounced COD
2026-07-012028 (held since 2025-05-19, 5 statements)
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in 2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in developing offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2027 Q3; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2028 Q1.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2028, likely range 2027–2028 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈98%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2022’23’24’25’26’27’28Developer-announced COD: 2028 announced COD 2028Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative) — awarded to Polenergia / EquinorPoland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative) Jun 2021 · auction recordView the sources for Consent appliedConsent applied 27 Mar 2024 ◆View the sources for Consent grantedConsent granted Aug 2024 ◆View the source for Final investment decisionFinal investment decision May 2025 ◆View the sources for Onshore constructionOnshore construction Jun 2025 ◆View the sources for Offshore constructionOffshore construction Jan 2026 ◆Commercial operation 2028 ·Hafrok expectedPoland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative) — awarded to Polenergia / Equinor 2021-06 ORIGINATIONPolenergia → Equinor — 50.0% 2018-05 FARMDOWNTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDKulczyk Investments (Mansa Investments) → Brookfield — stake not disclosed · closed 2021-02 2020-11 TODAYPolenergia — 50% today · developer Polenergia Polenergia 50%Equinor — 50% today · operator Equinor Equinor 50%Kulczyk Investments (Mansa Investments) Kulczyk Investments Kulczyk Investments exited 2020-11Brookfield Brookfield Brookfield exited 2020-11Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative) — awarded to Polenergia / Equinor Polenergia → Equinor — 50.0% 50%Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. Kulczyk Investments (Mansa Investments) → Brookfield — stake not disclosed · closed 2021-02
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2028, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

720 MW contracted — tender award
● Tender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
Price319.6 PLN/MWh ·Capacity720 MWAwardedJun 2021
Term25 yrs

Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers

Installation under way
Installation · on record
StageUnder Construction
Offshore constructionstarted 2026-01
Turbinesinstallation not started◆as of 2026-09-02 (date published) · reported by Polenergia
Expected start of operation2028
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
Offshore substationBaltyk 2 offshore substation·planning · owner Equinor 50% / Polenergia 50% (MFW Baltyk II)

Sources & verification

Rests on 17 sources (18 primary) · ◆ 14 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator9
[1]
Equinor2025-05-22◆ Financial close for Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk …
“The projects were awarded Contracts for Difference (CfD) in 2021, securing power prices at approximately EUR 71 per MWh (2021 price) for 25 years, with inflation indexation. Full commercial power prod…”
supportsFinal investment decisionCommercial operationTurbinesTotal capacityDistance from shore
[2]
Polenergia2025-05-19◆ Equinor and Polenergia take Final Invest…
“Equinor and Polenergia have taken the Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for the Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 offshore wind projects. The electricity generated by Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 will be connected to Po…”
supportsStatusConnection point
[4]
Equinor2021-05-04◆ Breakthrough for Equinor in Polish offsh…
“Equinor and Polenergia's Baltyk II and Baltyk III projects have been awarded contracts for difference (CfD) under the first phase of Poland's offshore wind development scheme. Reference price: PLN 319…”
supportsoperatordeveloperMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[6]
Equinor2022-02-22◆ Turbine supplier selected for Baltyk II …
“Siemens Gamesa SG 14-236 DD turbine selected. 14 MW nominal power, up to 15 MW with Power Boost. Rotor diameter: 236 meters. Covers the combined 1,440 MW capacity of both offshore wind farms in Poland…”
supportsModelUnit capacity
[7]
Sif Holding N.V.2024-02-16◆ Sif and Equinor Polenergia JV agree on f…
“Final contracts for the supply of 100 monopiles to the joint venture of Equinor and Polenergia for the Bałtyk II + Bałtyk III offshore wind projects. 50 units per wind farm. Manufacturing start Q2 202…”
supportsTurbinesFoundation
[17]
Polenergia2026-05-25◆ Kick off of offshore installation the fi…
“The Baltyk 2 & 3 is expected to deliver its first power in 2027 and be fully operational in 2028.”
supportsFirst powerCommercial operation
[18]
Polenergia2026-07-14◆ Landfall hdd completed for the baltyk 2 …
“Landfall HDD has been completed at the construction site of the Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 offshore wind farms, a joint venture between Equinor and Polenergia.”
supportsStatus note
[19]
Polenergia2026-07-01◆ Baltyk 2 3 turbine foundations halfway c…
“The offshore wind farms being built by Equinor and Polenergia have reached the halfway point in foundation installation. As part of this investment in the Baltic Sea, more than 50 monopiles and transi…”
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore constructionCOD history
[21]
Heerema Marine Contractors2026-09-02◆ Heerema Marine Contractors Installs 100 …
“Heerema Marine Contractors has successfully completed the offshore foundation installation campaign for the Bałtyk 2 and Bałtyk 3 offshore wind farms in the Baltic Sea, safely delivering the work well…”
supportsThialf — foundation installation
Financier1
[8]
European Investment Bank2025-05-23◆ Poland: EIB extends €700 million for dev…
“EUR 700 million in financing: EUR 350 million for Bałtyk 2 and EUR 350 million for Bałtyk 3. 100 wind turbines of 14.4 MW each. Expected to go online fully in 2028.”
supportsTurbinesUnit capacity
Auction results1
[27]
Norton Rose Fulbright2026-06-22◆ pl-phase1-admin-cfd-2021-pl-owa
Poland Offshore Wind Act CfD: PLN 60,000/MW security, first power within 7 years of decision/auction-close
supportsTender award · Poland offshore CfD Phase 1 (administrative)
Trade press6
[9]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-06-30◆ Equinor and Polenergia's Bałtyk 2 & 3 Of…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore constructionModelTotal capacity
[10]
offshoreWIND.biz2024-08-22◆ All Construction Permits Granted for Bał…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentConsent appliedConsent granted
[11]
offshoreWIND.biz2024-07-11◆ Polish Gov't Clears 720 MW Offshore Wind…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsConsentConsent appliedConsent granted
[13]
NS Energy Business2025-01
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsModelUnit capacityWater depthDistance from shore
[14]
Global Energy Monitor2026-07-02
supportsCoordinates
[15]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed