Ecowende (Hollandse Kust West Site VI)

Won via competitive tender with ecology as key assessment criterion.

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2026
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈97% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
20%40%60%80%100% 2025: 1.3% (conditional on completion) 2026: 75.4% (conditional on completion) 2027: 21.7% (conditional on completion) 2028: 1.6% (conditional on completion)20252026now75%20272028 Developer-announced COD: 2026 — in line with Hafrok’s expected year ANNOUNCED = EXPECTED 2026developer cod guidance2022-12 → 2026-07: the developer guided 2026 in 6 statements — sources [4] [5] [6] [7] [10] [13] — click for the sources2026-072026 · held since 2022-12 (×6) [4,5,6,7,10,13]
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
20251.3%
2026 (expected)75.4%
202721.7%
20281.6%
Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
StatedAnnounced COD
2026-07-062026 (held since 2022-12-15, 6 statements)
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in 2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2026 Q3; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2025 Q4, the slower quarter not until 2027 Q3.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2026, likely range 2026–2028 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈97%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2022’23’24’25’26Developer-announced COD: 2026 announced COD 2026View the sources for Consent appliedConsent applied 2022-Q2 ◆View the source for Final investment decisionFinal investment decision 2022 ◆View the sources for Consent grantedConsent granted 15 Dec 2022 ◆Hollandse Kust (west) Sites VI & VII — awarded to Ecowende (Shell + Eneco; later Chubu)Hollandse Kust (west) Sites VI & VII Dec 2022 · auction recordView the source for Offshore constructionOffshore construction Sep 2025 ◆Commercial operation 2026 ·Hafrok expectedView the source for First powerFirst power Jul 2026 ◆Hollandse Kust (west) Sites VI & VII — awarded to Ecowende (Shell + Eneco; later Chubu) 2022-12 ORIGINATIONEneco → Chubu Electric Power — 30% · closed 2024-05 2024-02 FARMDOWNTODAYShell — 60% today · operator Shell Shell 60%Eneco — 10% today · partner Eneco Eneco 10%Chubu Electric Power — 30% today · investor Chubu Electric Power Chubu Electric Power 30%Hollandse Kust (west) Sites VI & VII — awarded to Ecowende (Shell + Eneco; later Chubu) Eneco → Chubu Electric Power — 30% · closed 2024-05 30%
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2026, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake the regime the project was built under

Offtake regime: Zero-subsidy (ecology-criteria tender, merchant / PPA)
A built project sells its power under the contract or support regime it was financed with; it is not expected to bid into new government offtake rounds. Where the record does not yet name that regime, the row says so rather than guessing.

Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers

Installation under way
Installation · on record
StageUnder Construction
Offshore constructionstarted 2025-09
Turbinesnot reportedshown when the developer reports a dated count
Expected start of operation2026
Construction ports
PortBuss Terminal Eemshaven ◆·turbines · quay 5000 m · crane 50 t · draft 14 m
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
Offshore substationHollandse Kust (west Alpha)·owner TenneT

Sources & verification

Rests on 14 sources (8 primary) · ◆ 12 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator2
[1]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2024-08◆ RVO Hollandse Kust West VI & VII results
“On 15 December 2022, Minister for Climate and Energy Rob Jetten announced that the permit for Wind Farm Site VI of the Hollandse Kust (west) Wind Farm Zone has been awarded to Ecowende, a consortium o…”
supportsConsentMechanismDetailConsent grantedConsent applied
[3]
RVO (Netherlands Enterprise Agency)2021-06◆ Hollandse Kust (west) Wind Farm Zone - P…
“Hollandse Kust (west) Wind Farm Zone (HKWWFZ) is located approximately 28.6 nautical miles (53 km) off the west coast of the Netherlands. [...] The water depth generally increases from the north-east …”
supportsDistance from shoreCoordinates
Operator5
[2]
Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy (Netherlands)2021-11-26◆ Kavelbesluit VI windenergiegebied Hollan…
“Het windpark wordt aangesloten op het TenneT-platform Hollandse Kust (west Alpha)...”
supportsTotal capacityStatusConnection point
[4]
Eneco2022-12-15◆ Shell and Eneco win tender for offshore …
“Shell and Eneco have already taken the final investment decision for this wind farm. [...] approximately 53 kilometers off the Dutch coast near IJmuiden [...] 760 MW [...] Expected to meet approximate…”
supportsFinal investment decision
[9]
Ecowende2024-12-12◆ Ecowende chooses Buss Ports for state-of…
“Buss Terminal Eemshaven [...] Storage and handling of wind turbine components [...] managing 52 Vestas V236 turbine sets with nacelles, blades, and towers [...] operating across 200,000+ square meters…”
supportsturbines
[13]
Eneco2026-07-06◆ First power ecowendes offshore wind farm…
“Ecowende’s wind farm Hollandse Kust West, one of the most ecological offshore wind farms in the world, is now connected to TenneT’s offshore grid and has produced its first carbon-free energy. The win…”
supportsFirst powerCommercial operationCOD history
[14]
Staatscourant (officielebekendmakingen.nl)2022-03-05◆ Regeling vergunning Hollandse Kust (west…
“De aanvraag voor een vergunning voor kavel VI wordt ingediend in de periode tussen 14 april 2022 en 12 mei 2022, 17:00 uur.”
supportsConsentConsent grantedConsent applied
OEM1
[5]
Vestas2023-12-22◆ Vestas secures a firm order for Ecowende…
“Vestas secures a firm order for Ecowende's Hollandse Kust West offshore wind farm in the Netherlands [...] 52 V236-15.0 MW wind turbines [...] 760 MW [...] turbine installation expected to begin Q2 20…”
supportsCommercial operationTurbinesModelUnit capacity
Trade press6
[6]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-09-25◆ Offshore Construction Starts on Ecowende…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsOffshore construction
[7]
offshoreWIND.biz2025-12-05◆ First Monopile In at ‘Most Ecological Of…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsFoundationBoreas — foundation installation
[8]
offshoreWIND.biz2024-05-09◆ Japan's Chubu Completes Ecowende Buy-In …
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperatorinvestorpartner
[10]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-06-01◆ First Wind Turbine Installed at Hollands…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCommercial operationBoreas — turbine installation
[11]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
[12]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed