Formosa 4
Located in Miaoli County offshore area, adjacent to Formosa 1 and 2 sites. Synera Renewable Energy is the successor entity to the Macquarie/JERA Taiwan JV.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
SRSynera Renewable Energy — 100% ◆
Location
TaiwanTaiwan Strait
Technology
Capacity
495 MW ◇
Turbines
35 × 14 MW ◆
Foundation
Jacket ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Taiwan Round 3 Zonal Development — Block 3.1 (區塊開發 3-1) · 2022 ·
Water depth
57–64 m ≈
Distance from shore
20 km ◆
Wind speed
11.2 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
PPA ◇
Grid
—
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2028 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2028
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈85%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract puts this one well above that; technical complexity weighs only slightly against it.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.2% |
| 2028 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2029 | 24.0% |
| 2030 | 14.4% |
| 2031 | 8.0% |
| 2032 | 4.4% |
| 2033 | 2.4% |
| 2034 | 1.3% |
| 2035 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2024. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2028 Q2; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2026 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2029 Q3.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2028, likely range 2027–2030 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈85%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2022-12
Taiwan Round 3 Zonal Development — Block 3.1 (區塊開發 3-1)
- Awarded to
- Synera Renewable Energy
- Basis
- integrated tender
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Sources & verification
Rests on 11 sources (5 primary) · ◆ 5 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator3
[10]
Cadeler A/S2025-08-22
“Cadeler signs firm contract with Synera Renewable Energy for T&I of 35 Siemens Gamesa 14MW wind turbines at the Formosa 4 Offshore Wind Farm in Taiwan. T&I operations set to commence in March 2028 and…”
supportsTurbinesUnit capacityDistance from shore
[11]
Glamox2026-08
"...the transition pieces of 35 wind turbines... around 20km off Taiwan's West coast... roughly 58 square kilometres... delivery in August 2026", with transition pieces fabricated by Century Wind Powe…
supportsTurbinesDistance from shore
[12]
PALFINGER2026-03
“35 PF 200 fully electric offshore cranes... installed on jacket foundations supporting 14 MW turbines... located 18 to 20 kilometers off the coast of Miaoli County.”
supportsTurbinesFoundation
Trade press7
[2]
offshoreWIND.biz2022-12◆ Taiwan awards Round 3.1 offshore wind ca…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
[3]
[5]
[6]
offshoreWIND.biz2024-11◆ Synera Receives Permit to Build 495 MW F…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsoperator
[7]
[8]
[9]
Unverified import1