Morecambe
Located in eastern Irish Sea. Crown Estate Round 4 project.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners — 100% ◆Location
United KingdomIrish Sea
Technology
Capacity
480 MW ◆
Turbines
35 ◆
Foundation
Fixed-bottom (structure not recorded) ◆
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held Seabed lease · The Crown Estate ◆
Origination
Crown Estate Round 4 · 2021 ·
Water depth
20–37 m ≈
Wind speed
10.3 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
—
Grid
Applied ◆
Connection
Penwortham 400kV Substation — NESO TEC register entry at … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · announced
2030 ◆
COD · Hafrok
2032 expected
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2032
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2030; Hafrok expects 2032 — 2 years later.
Chance of delivery
≈78%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; technical complexity pulls the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2031 | 14.2% |
| 2032 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2033 | 24.0% |
| 2034 | 14.4% |
| 2035 | 8.0% |
| 2036 | 4.4% |
| 2037 | 2.4% |
| 2038 | 1.3% |
| 2039 | 0.8% |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2025. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2029 Q2; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2027 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2030 Q3.3
Still needs an offtake award: UK-CFD-AR8
The project has no offtake contract yet. The next visible auction is around
2026 Q4; winners typically reach final investment decision about 2 years after an award (2028 Q4), then build time on top gives 2032 Q1. That is later than the milestone timing, so the auction sets the date.4
Result
Expected commercial operation
2032, likely range 2031–2033 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2030) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.5
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
6
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈78%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2021-02
Crown Estate Round 4
- Awarded to
- Offshore Wind Limited (Cobra Instalaciones y Servicios + Flotation Energy)
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2030
Sources & verification
Rests on 16 sources (11 primary) · ◆ 9 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator4
[4]
Planning Inspectorate2025-12-01◆ Morecambe Offshore Windfarm Generation A…
“The relevant Secretary of State's decision date: 1 December 2025. Status: Post-decision stage (application granted). Expected nominal capacity of 480MW.”
supportsConsentTotal capacityConsent appliedConsent granted
[15]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 10922: Site Name "Morecombe Offshore Windfarm", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 480 MWelec, Operator "Cobra Instalaciones y Servi…”
supportsRegister entry
[17]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN010121: "Morecambe Offshore Windfarm Generation Assets"; applicant "Morecambe Offshore Windfarm Ltd."; Stage "Post-decision"; anticipated submission May 2024; applied 2024-05-31; a…”
supportsConsentConsent appliedConsent granted
[18]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero / Planning Inspectorate2026-09-14◆ Morgan and Morecambe Offshore Wind Farms…
“The Morgan and Morecambe Offshore Wind Farms Transmission Assets DCO application has today been granted development consent by the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero ... The project comprises…”
supportsStatus note
Operator4
[3]
NESO2026-06-12◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“Morecambe Offshore Wind Farm,MORECAMBE OFFSHORE WINDFARM LTD,Penwortham 400kV Substation,,0,480,480,30/06/2029,Scoping,Direct Connection,NGET,Wind Offshore,a1f4L000000EHKKQA4,PRO-001450,”
supportsStatusConnection point
[5]
Copenhagen Offshore Partners2025-12-02◆ Copenhagen Offshore Partners | Morecambe…
“The Development Consent Order received approval on December 1, 2025, from the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero. The project is sized at 480 megawatts (MW). Construction is 'schedule…”
supportsConsentTotal capacityConsent appliedConsent granted
[9]
Morecambe Offshore Wind (CIP/COP)2026-06-15
“Expected Final Investment Decision: 2025”
supportsConsentCommercial operationTotal capacityConsent appliedConsent granted
[16]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-001450: "Morecambe Offshore Wind Farm", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2029-06-30, Customer "MORECAMBE OFFSHORE WINDFARM LTD"”
supportsRegister entry
Auction pipeline1
[20]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press6
[10]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-01
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsowner
[11]
[12]
[13]
[14]
[19]
The Crown Estate2026-01-29◆ Two offshore wind projects enter lease w…
“Two offshore wind projects have entered into lease with The Crown Estate after just three years, helping to support the government’s clean power ambitions. The Morecambe and Mona projects, located in …”
supportsSite rightsTurbinesFoundation
Unverified import1
[1]