Gennaker

Largest offshore wind farm in German Baltic Sea. Located 15 km north of Fischland-Darß-Zingst. Monopile manufacturing by EEW SPC in Rostock (40 km from site).

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2029
expected year of commercial operation
The developer says 2028; Hafrok expects 2029 — 1 year later.
Chance of delivery
≈95% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Financed projects (investment decision taken) complete ≈92% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; its size and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal)
20%40%60%80%100% 2028: 6.3% (conditional on completion) 2029: 72.3% (conditional on completion) 2030: 20.3% (conditional on completion) 2031: 1.0% (conditional on completion)2026now20272028202972%EXPECTED20302031 Developer-announced COD: 2028 ANNOUNCED 2028
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
20286.3%
2029 (expected)72.3%
203020.3%
20311.0%
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Final investment decision in 2026. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2029 Q2; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2028 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2030 Q2.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2029, likely range 2029–2030 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date (2028) is earlier than similar projects have managed — Hafrok's own date is used and the difference is flagged above.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development (FID) projects that went on to complete — ≈92%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Financed projects have essentially always gone on to operate, but few have resolved since taking their investment decision — the estimate holds just below the construction-stage level rather than claiming certainty from a thin record. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈95%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2019’20’21’22’23’24’25’26’27’28’29Developer-announced COD: 2028 announced COD 2028View the source for Consent grantedConsent granted 15 May 2019 ◆View the sources for Final investment decisionFinal investment decision Sep 2026 ◆Commercial operation 2029 ·Hafrok expectedNo origination on record — who held the site before the first recorded deal is not known; shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDSkyborn Renewables → Stadtwerke München — 25% · closed 2026 2026-06-22 FARMDOWNTODAYSkyborn Renewables — 75% today · operator Skyborn Renewables Skyborn Renewables 75%Stadtwerke München — 25% today · sponsor Stadtwerke München Stadtwerke München 25%Skyborn Renewables → Stadtwerke München — 25% · closed 2026 25%
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. Ownership lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.

Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers

Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operation2028

Sources & verification

Rests on 12 sources (7 primary) · ◆ 5 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Operator6
[2]
Skyborn Renewables2025-12-19◆ Gennaker Construction And Operations Per…
“Skyborn Renewables' (Skyborn) permit application for its 976.5 MW Gennaker offshore wind farm ... has been approved on 16 December by the State Office for Agriculture and Environment in Stralsund, Wes…”
supportsTotal capacity
[3]
Offshore Wind Biz2026-01-28◆ Skyborn, 50Hertz Sign Agreement for Genn…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsStatusConnection point
[4]
Offshore Wind Biz2026-04-27◆ EIB Greenlights EUR 700 Million for Genn…
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTotal capacity
[9]
Skyborn Renewables2026-06-19
“Amazon and Skyborn Renewables sign 600 MW PPA for Gennaker — "This agreement with Amazon marks a defining milestone for Gennaker and Skyborn" (Adam Thomsen, Chief Development Officer, Skyborn Renewabl…”
supportsMechanismDetail
[13]
Skyborn Renewables2026-09-11◆ Financial Close achieved on Gennaker
“Skyborn achieves Financial Close for the Gennaker offshore wind farm (up to 976.5 MW) ... The project has secured a comprehensive €2.1 billion non-recourse financing package from a consortium of 16 co…”
supportsoperatorsponsorFinal investment decisionCommercial operationSite rights
[14]
Staatliches Amt für Landwirtschaft und Umwelt Vorpommern (StALU Vorpommern)2025-05-12◆ Bekanntmachung nach § 10 Abs. 3 BImSchG:…
“Der OWP Gennaker GmbH wurde am 15.05.2019 vom Staatlichen Amt für Landwirtschaft und Umwelt Vorpommern (StALU Vorpommern) gemäß § 4 Abs. 1 BImSchG die Genehmigung für die Errichtung und den Betrieb vo…”
supportsConsentConsent granted
Trade press5
[6]
Power Technology2025
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityTotal capacityFoundation+1 more
[7]
4C Offshore2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[8]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
[11]
Offshore Wind Biz2026-06-22
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsFinal investment decisionSite rights
[12]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed
Unverified import1
[1]
unknown
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityTotal capacityFoundation+3 more