Hornsea 4
Part of the Hornsea Zone, East of England. Seabed lease agreed with The Crown Estate March 2016 as part of Round 3 reconfiguration.
Status
Advanced Developmentlifecycle stage
ExpectedHafrok completion outlook
Ownership
Ørsted — 100% ◆Location
United KingdomNorth Sea
Technology
Capacity
2,400 MW ◆
Turbines
—
Foundation
—
Site & conditions
Site rights
Seabed rights held ∴
Origination
Crown Estate Round 3 · 2010 ·
Water depth
29–52 m ≈
Distance from shore
90 km ◆
Wind speed
10.5 m/s @ 150 m ≈
Revenue & grid
Offtake
CfD · AR6 · £58.87/MWh terminated ◆
Grid
Secured ◆
Connection
Creyke Beck 400kV substation (connection agreement retained … ◆
Schedule
FID
Not taken
COD · Hafrok
2027 expected
Previously on hold
7 May 2025 → 6 May 2026 ◆
Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects
2027
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈80%
estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Advanced Development projects complete ≈75% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one above that; a very large build and technical complexity pull the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
| Year | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.2% |
| 2027 (expected) | 30.5% |
| 2028 | 24.0% |
| 2029 | 14.4% |
| 2030 | 8.0% |
| 2031 | 4.4% |
| 2032 | 2.4% |
| 2033 | 1.3% |
| 2034 | 0.8% |
| Stated | Announced COD |
|---|---|
| 2024-10 | 2030 (held since 2024-09-03, 2 statements) |
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Consent granted in
2023. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of
2027 Q2; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2025 Q3, the slower quarter not until 2028 Q3.3
Result
Expected commercial operation
2027, likely range 2026–2029 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The typical time from consent is used.4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Advanced Development projects that went on to complete — ≈75%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Consented projects have historically completed at very high rates, but the 2023–25 downturn showed consented-but-unfinanced projects can still fail — the estimate holds back for the offtake and financing gates still ahead. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈80%, which rates it
Expected on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record
Origination · 2010-01
Crown Estate Round 3
- Awarded to
- SMart Wind (Mainstream Renewable Power + Siemens Project Ventures)
- Zone
- Hornsea zone
- Basis
- seabed award
From the auction results — the round that created the project.
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: held (announced 2030, unchanged) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above
Revenue & offtake route to market — open
No offtake secured — route to market open
CfD · AR6 awarded 2024-09, terminated 2025-07. No live offtake on record. ◇
The routes describe what exists in this market — not a prediction of which the project will take. Timing math for the auction gate lives in the delivery outlook above.
CfD allocation round
The UK's principal route — a 15-year, CPI-indexed, two-sided CfD awarded in annual competitive rounds.
Next visible round · from the auction calendar
CfD Allocation Round 8 ◇
AR8 confirmed (gov update, Mar 2026) to OPEN July 2026 — brought forward from the earlier mid/late-2026 expectation
Corporate PPA
Bilateral long-term offtake with corporate buyers; can cover part of output alongside or ahead of a CfD.
Merchant
Uncontracted sale into the wholesale market — no price floor, full exposure to power prices.
Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers
Installation not started
Installation · on record
StageAdvanced Development
Offshore constructionnot started
Expected start of operationnot stated
Construction ports
PortHumber ports ◆
Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemHornsea 4 HVDC·2400 MW · ±320 kV · cancelled
Export & onshore
Onshore connectionCreyke Beck Extension (Wanlass Beck)·400 kV · planning
Converter suppliernot yet named·Hornsea 4 HVDC · not yet named · for National Grid ESO
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
Sources & verification
Rests on 17 sources (15 primary) · ◆ 14 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator4
[1]
Planning Inspectorate2023-07-12◆ Hornsea Project Four Offshore Wind Farm …
“Hornsea Project Four Offshore Wind Farm, reference EN010098. Application granted on 12 July 2023 by the Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero. Applicant: Orsted Hornsea Project Four Limi…”
supportsConsentDistance from shoreConsent appliedConsent granted
[13]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 2473: Site Name "Hornsea 4", Development Status "Awaiting Construction", Installed Capacity 2600 MWelec, Operator "Orsted (formerly Dong Energy)"”
supportsRegister entry
[17]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-08-03◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q2 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 2473: Site Name "Hornsea 4", Development Status "Planning Permission Granted", Installed Capacity 2400 MWelec, Operator "Orsted (formerly Dong Energy)", Record …”
supportsRegister entry
[18]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN010098: "Hornsea Project Four Offshore Wind Farm"; applicant "Orsted Hornsea Project Four Limited"; Stage "Post-decision"; anticipated submission Q2 2020; applied 2021-09-29; accep…”
supportsConsentConsent appliedConsent granted
Operator8
[2]
Ørsted A/S2025-05-07◆ Orsted to discontinue the Hornsea 4 offs…
“Orsted has today decided to discontinue the Hornsea 4 project in the UK in its current form. Since the Contract for Difference (CfD) award in allocation round 6 (AR6) in September 2024, the 2,400 MW H…”
supportsPreviously on holdTotal capacityStatusConnection pointport+1 more
[3]
Ørsted A/S2024-09-03◆ Ørsted’s Hornsea 3 and Hornsea 4 awarded…
"The UK Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) has awarded Orsted contracts for difference (CfD) for a 1,080 MW share of the Hornsea 3 Offshore Wind Farm, as well as a 2,400 MW CfD for Ho…
supportsMechanismStrike / priceDetail
[4]
Ørsted A/S2026-02◆ Ørsted Annual Report 2025
“Hornsea 4 remains in the pipeline, as we continue to hold seabed rights, a grid connection agreement, and a development consent order. [...] In Q2 2025, we decided to discontinue our offshore wind pro…”
supportsBackground
[6]
Ørsted A/S2026-05-06◆ Ørsted Q1 2026 earnings call transcript
“We have moved Hornsea 4 back into development. We are moving that forward well and according to plan and we will be able to participate with that project should we decide to do so from AR9 and onwards…”
supportsPreviously on hold
[8]
[12]
Ørsted A/S2024-10◆ Web Hornsea 4 Newsletter Oct 2024
“I am delighted to confirm that Hornsea 4 offshore wind farm has been awarded a 2,400 MW contract for difference (CfD). This is a major milestone for the project and we are now focused on moving toward…”
supportsCOD history
[14]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-000435-1: "Hornsea Power Station 4", Status "Scoping", MW Connected 0, Effective From 2028-10-30, Customer "ORSTED HORNSEA PROJECT FOUR LIMITED"; PRO-0004…”
supportsRegister entry
[19]
Ørsted2026-08◆ Hornsea 4 summer newsletter, August 2026
“We’re delighted to share that Hornsea 4 has now entered its seabed lease – an important milestone in the continued development of the project. [...] We were clear when we discontinued the project in 2…”
supportsBackground
Auction results1
[20]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2024-09◆ cfd-ar6-results-2024
New offshore wind (Pot 3) GBP 58.87, 2028/29: Hornsea Project Four 2,400.00 MW; East Anglia Two Phase 1 963.07 MW. Offshore Wind Permitted Reduction GBP 54.23, 2027/28: Inch Cape A 177.41 / B 88.70 MW…
supportsOfftake history
Auction pipeline1
[21]
DESNZ (gov.uk)2026◆ govuk-cfd-ar8
gov.uk AR8 collection — Allocation Framework, statutory framework and CIB documents published ahead of the round.
supportsCfD Allocation Round 8
Trade press3
[9]
4C Offshore (TGS)2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[10]
[11]