Dogger Bank B

Part of the 3.6 GW Dogger Bank Wind Farm complex (Phases A, B, C).

Delivery outlook modelled by Hafrok · calibrated on delivered projects

2027
expected year of commercial operation
Chance of delivery
≈98% estimated chance this project reaches commercial operation
Under Construction projects complete ≈97% of the time on Hafrok's record. A secured offtake contract lifts this one slightly; its size and technical complexity pull a little the other way.
COD outlook
If it completes, when — Hafrok’s probability by year (teal) · the developer’s COD guidance, by date stated (ink)
20%40%60%80%100% 2026: 1.3% (conditional on completion) 2027: 75.4% (conditional on completion) 2028: 21.7% (conditional on completion) 2029: 1.6% (conditional on completion)20252026now202775%20282029 Developer-announced COD: 2027 — in line with Hafrok’s expected year ANNOUNCED = EXPECTED 2027developer cod guidance2020-11-26: the developer guided 2025 — source [4] — click for it2020-112025 [4]2024-05-22: the developer guided 2026 — source [16] — click for it2024-052026 [16]2026-03-19: the developer guided 2027 — source [19] — click for it2026-032027 [19]
COD probability by year, conditional on completion
YearProbability
20261.3%
2027 (expected)75.4%
202821.7%
20291.6%
Developer COD guidance, by the date it was stated
StatedAnnounced COD
2020-11-262025
2024-05-222026
2026-03-192027
How Hafrok got this date
1
Starting point: the last dated milestone
Construction start in 2020. From there Hafrok adds how long similar projects (in established offshore-wind markets) took to reach commercial operation, measured on projects that have delivered.
2
Typical timing
Starting point plus the typical remaining time gives a middle estimate of 2021 Q3; the faster quarter of similar projects would be done by 2020 Q4, the slower quarter not until 2022 Q3. Dates already in the past are moved up to today — this project has run beyond the typical timing.
3
Result
Expected commercial operation 2027, likely range 2025–2027 (the middle half of outcomes for similar projects). The developer's announced date falls inside that likely range, so the announced date is adopted.
4
Year-by-year chart
The bars spread that estimate across years using how similar projects actually slipped against their dates — more often late than early, which is why the bars lean right.
5
Chance of delivery — separate from timing
Start from the share of Under Construction projects that went on to complete — ≈97%, measured on Hafrok's record of delivered and abandoned projects, with an allowance held back where that record cannot yet speak (projects still unresolved, changed market conditions). Based on the measured record — all 257 construction starts with a final outcome reached operation — adjusted down for projects still mid-build and for legal-challenge risk. Then adjust for this project's own evidence — offtake, market, size, technical complexity — to ≈98%, which rates it Delivering on Hafrok's four-step delivery scale (Delivering · Expected · Prospective · Fragile).

Project timeline & ownership verified milestones on the spine · ownership from Hafrok’s transactions record

2010’11’12’13’14’15’16’17’18’19’20’21’22’23’24’25’26’27Developer-announced COD: 2027 announced COD 2027Crown Estate Round 3 — awarded to Forewind (SSE, RWE Npower, Statoil, Statkraft)Crown Estate Round 3 Jan 2010 · auction recordView the sources for Consent appliedConsent applied 29 Aug 2013 ◆View the sources for Consent grantedConsent granted 17 Feb 2015 ◆View the source for Onshore constructionOnshore construction Jan 2020 ◆View the source for Final investment decisionFinal investment decision 26 Nov 2020 ◆View the source for Offshore constructionOffshore construction May 2024 ◆View the sources for First powerFirst power Mar 2026 ◆Commercial operation 2027 ·Hafrok expectedCrown Estate Round 3 — awarded to Forewind (SSE, RWE Npower, Statoil, Statkraft) 2010-01 ORIGINATIONTransfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. UNRECORDEDSSE Renewables / Equinor → Eni — 20% · €223m · closed 2021-02 2020-12 FARMDOWNEni Plenitude → Vårgrønn (Plenitude / HitecVision JV) — 20% · closed 2022-10 2022-06 CORPORATETODAYForewind (SSE, RWE Npower, Statoil, Statkraft) Forewind Forewind not among today’s recorded owners — no sale recordedSSE Renewables — 40% today · operator SSE Renewables SSE Renewables 40%Equinor — 40% today Equinor Equinor 40%Eni Plenitude Eni Eni exited 2022-06Vårgrønn — 20% today Vårgrønn Vårgrønn 20%Crown Estate Round 3 — awarded to Forewind (SSE, RWE Npower, Statoil, Statkraft) Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. Transfer(s) not in Hafrok's record — shown as a gap, never guessed. SSE Renewables / Equinor → Eni — 20% · €223m · closed 2021-02 SSE Renewables / Equinor → Eni — 20% · €223m · closed 2021-02 20% → consortiumEni Plenitude → Vårgrønn (Plenitude / HitecVision JV) — 20% · closed 2022-10 20%
Dashed tick marks today (13 Oct 2026). The ▲ below the spine is the developer-announced COD. The teal diamond on the spine is origination — the seabed award or round that created the project. Every other ownership event lives in the band below: one station per recorded deal, dated at its label, in deal order rather than to calendar scale. Secondary trades appear only at the interchanges; grey lines are parties whose entry or exit Hafrok’s record does not hold.
Announced COD: slipped so far +2.0 yr (first announced 2025) · the full guidance history is in the delivery chart above

Revenue & offtake contract duration and price levels · money of the day

CfD-backed offtake
● CfD · AR3
Price£41.611/MWh ·
Basis2012 real · CPI-indexed
Capacity1,200 MWAwardedSep 2019
Term15 yrs · delivery 2024/25
Money-of-the-day values computed by Hafrok from the United Kingdom CPI index, 2012 real base — actual to 2026-08, then an assumed +2.0%/yr (central-bank target). Cfd terms run 15 years from start of generation in the contracted delivery year.
Contract price over time · £/MWh
solid = actual CPI indexation · dashed = assumed +2.0%/yr
CfD · AR3
20406080nowCfD · AR3 — £41.611/MWh · 2012 real · CPI-indexedCfD · AR3 — £41.611/MWh · 2012 real · CPI-indexed · assumed indexationCfD · AR3 term · 15 yrs20192022202520282031203420372040CfD · AR3 — £41.611/MWh · 2012 real · CPI-indexed — 46.7 at award61.4 now

Installation how the build is going · from sourced statements and Hafrok’s registers

Grid connection
from Hafrok’s substation, converter and cable registers
Offshore platforms · 1
HVDC systemDogger Bank B HVDC·1200 MW · ±320 kV · under construction, expected 2026
Export & onshore
Export cableDogger Bank B Export Cable·HVDC subsea · 207 km · NKT · under construction · to Beverley, East Riding of Yorkshire
Converter supplierHitachi Energy·Dogger Bank B HVDC · Aibel (Haugesund, Norway) · for National Grid ESO
Grid connection · ready in time?
when each part of the grid connection is due, against the start date the developer states (black line) and the year Hafrok expects (teal band) · a bar spans the whole year, quarter or month the source gives
installed or in serviceexpected deliveryearlier date that was later moved
2024202520262027Hafrok expects the farm to start in 2027developer’s stated start 2027nowDogger Bank B HVDCDogger Bank B HVDCplatform installed 2024-04platform installed 2024-04expected 2026expected 2026Dogger Bank B Export CableDogger Bank B Export Cableexpected 2026expected 2026

Sources & verification

Rests on 22 sources (18 primary) · ◆ 14 documents held
◆Verified≈Modelled◇Sourced∴Inferred⌁Convention○Unverified∅No source·Derived
Numbers are stable citation ids — grouped by source class, so they are not consecutive.
Regulator4
[1]
legislation.gov.uk2015-02-17◆ The Dogger Bank Creyke Beck Offshore Win…
“Project B offshore works Work No. 1B — (a) an offshore wind turbine generating station with a gross electrical output capacity of up to 1.2 gigawatts comprising up to 200 wind turbine generators each …”
supportsConsentTotal capacityFoundationConsent appliedConsent granted
[3]
BEIS (gov.uk)2019-09-20◆ CfD Allocation Round 3 results
“Doggerbank Creyke Beck B P1 | DoggerbankOffshoreWindFarm Project2ProjcoLimited | Offshore Wind | 1200.00 | 41.611 | 2024/25 | 1,505,330 | England”
supportsMechanismStrike / priceDetailCfD · AR3
[17]
Department for Energy Security and Net Zero2026-05-06◆ Renewable Energy Planning Database (REPD…
“REPD Q1 2026 quarterly extract — Ref ID 2541: Site Name "Dogger Bank A & B (was Creyke Beck A & B)", Development Status "Under Construction", Installed Capacity 2400 MWelec, Operator "SSE/Equinor (for…”
supportsRegister entry
[25]
The Planning Inspectorate (PINS)2026-08-23◆ PINS national infrastructure application…
“Project reference EN010021: "Dogger Bank Creyke Beck"; applicant "Forewind Limited"; Stage "Post-decision"; applied 2013-08-29; accepted 2013-09-25; decision 2015-02-17.”
supportsConsentConsent appliedConsent granted
Operator12
[4]
Dogger Bank Wind Farm (SSE Renewables / Equinor JV)2020-11-26◆ Dogger Bank Wind Farm A and B reaches fi…
“Dogger Bank A and B reach financial close on 26 November 2020, the largest offshore wind project financing to date globally. First power is expected in Summer 2023 and Summer 2024 for Dogger Bank A an…”
supportsFinal investment decisionmarshalling turbine installation
[5]
Dogger Bank Wind Farm (SSE Renewables / Equinor / Vårgrønn JV)2022-10-17◆ Vargronn acquires Plenitude's 20% intere…
“Vårgrønn has acquired Plenitude's 20% interest in the world's largest offshore wind farm — Dogger Bank. The wind farm is a joint venture between SSE Renewables (40%), Equinor (40%) and Vårgrønn (20%).”
supportsoperatorowner
[6]
Dogger Bank Wind Farm (SSE Renewables / Equinor / Vårgrønn JV)2020-01
“Onshore construction began in January 2020 when our contractors, Jones Bros, broke ground near the village of Ulrome in the East Ridings of Yorkshire.”
supportsOnshore constructionOffshore construction
[7]
SSE Renewables2024-05-14◆ Foundation installation campaign begins …
“Seaway7's vessels Seaway Strashnov and Seaway Alfa Lift have commenced installation of monopile foundations and transition pieces for the Dogger Bank B phase of the offshore wind farm project.”
supportsSeaway Strashnov — foundation installationSeaway Alfa Lift — foundation installation
[11]
Dogger Bank Wind Farm (SSE Renewables / Equinor / Vårgrønn JV)2026-06-10
“Dogger Bank A and B, with a combined generation capacity of 2.4GW, will connect in to the existing Creyke Beck substation. Around 131km from shore at its closest point. Dogger Bank B covers an area of…”
supportsStatusConnection pointDistance from shore
[15]
GE Renewable Energy2020-09◆ Haliade-X 13 MW Dogger Bank launch PR
“GE Renewable Energy to supply 190 Haliade-X turbines for Dogger Bank A and B. The project will be first in the world to feature the 13 MW variant of GE Renewable Energy's Haliade-X platform”
supportsModelUnit capacity
[18]
National Energy System Operator (NESO)2026-07-21◆ NESO Transmission Entry Capacity (TEC) R…
“NESO TEC Register, edition 21 July 2026 - PRO-000410: "Dogger Bank Project 4 (Dogger Bank B)", Status "Built", MW Connected 1200, Effective From n/a, Customer "DOGGERBANK OFFSHORE WIND FARM PROJECT 2 …”
supportsRegister entry
[19]
Equinor ASA2026-03-19◆ Equinor Annual Report 2025 (equinor.com …
"In 2026, Dogger Bank A will enter full production and first production at Dogger Bank B is expected to start up." ... "At Dogger Bank A, preparations are underway to complete commissioning. Construct…
supportsCommercial operationCOD history
[20]
SSE plc2026-07-16◆ SSE Renewables — sse plc q1 fy27 trading…
“Work is progressing strongly at Dogger Bank B with 30 turbines installed with the run-rate of installation significantly exceeding that achieved on the first phase.”
supportsStatus note
[21]
SSE plc2026-05-28◆ SSE plc preliminary results FY2026
“Turbine installation is progressing strongly at Dogger Bank B (1.2GW, SSE share 40%) with the installation run-rate far exceeding that achieved on the first phase, resulting in 20 turbines currently i…”
supportsFirst power
[22]
SSE plc2026◆ SSE Annual Report 2026 (FY to 31 March 2…
“Turbine installation is progressing strongly at Dogger Bank B (1.2GW, SSE share 40%) with the installation run-rate far exceeding that achieved on the first phase, resulting in 20 turbines currently i…”
supportsFirst power
[24]
SSE plc2026-10-01◆ Trading update
“Delivery at Dogger Bank offshore wind farm continues to progress well, and in line with expectations, with turbine installation on Dogger Bank B beyond the half-way point.”
supportsStatus note
Trade press6
[8]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-03-03
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsTurbinesModelUnit capacityVoltaire — turbine installation
[9]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-06-09
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsStatus note
[10]
offshoreWIND.biz2026-05-12
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsmarshalling turbine installation
[12]
4C Offshore (TGS)2026-07-02
Press report — cited, not quoted; read it at the source link.
supportsCoordinates
[13]
GEBCO Compilation Group2020
supportsWater depth
[14]
DTU Wind Energy / World Bank (Global Wind Atlas)2026
supportsMean wind speed